- 1
Dubai stayed open for business.
Despite higher interest rates and a tense region, more property deals were registered in October than in September, and mortgages reached their highest level since March. Why it matters: the market is under pressure, but people are still buying — especially people buying homes to live in.
Measure September October Combined deals 16,478 17,634 Mortgages 4,258 4,633 - 2
Interest rates went up for the first time in three years.
On 16 September the US Federal Reserve raised rates by 0.25 points. Because the UAE dirham is to the US dollar, the UAE Central Bank followed the next day, moving its base rate from 3.65% to 3.90%. Both held steady on 28 October. Why it matters: variable-rate mortgages cost slightly more. Some US officials want another rise, so watch the Fed's December meeting.
Policy rate Before After 16–17 September 28 October Fed upper bound 3.75% 4.00% Held CBUAE Base Rate 3.65% 3.90% Held Next decision — — December Fed meeting - 3
Second-hand homes became the hot ticket.
2,988 ready apartments changed hands in October — the most since February, according to Arabian Business's analysis of data. Property Monitor's figures tell the same story: resale deals rose 9% while sales of brand-new homes from developers dipped 2%. Why it matters: buyers want certainty — a home they can see, move into or rent out immediately.
Measure September October Resale share of residential deals 35.4% (implied) 37.9% Ready apartments (Arabian Business) — 2,988 Resale apartments (Property Monitor) — 2,970 - 4
Prices are flat — the slide has slowed to a crawl.
Every citywide price index we track shows prices 1–3% below a year ago, with the latest monthly readings close to zero. Across 96 Dubai communities, the typical (median) community is roughly flat on a year ago (+0.9%) and moved just −0.3% in October. Why it matters: the correction looks contained. Prices have not started rising again.
Gauge Year-on-year Property Monitor DPI (index) −1.98% Property Monitor citywide avg −1.7% Cavendish Maxwell avg price −2.2% REIDIN Residential Sales Price Index −1.27% PM Sales Index — median of 96 communities +0.89% (median) - 5
Tenants gained bargaining power — but rent falls are slowing.
In prime areas, rents have dropped 10–14% over six months. In October, though, the monthly falls were mostly around 1%. Property Finder reported that ticked up slightly in September for the first time in months. Why it matters: this is the best time in years to negotiate a lease in premium areas — but the steepest part of the decline may be behind us.
Community 6-month change Downtown Dubai −13.37% Dubai Hills Estate — Apartments −13.62% Zabeel −13.74% Palm Jumeirah — Apartments −12.05% Sobha Hartland — Apartments −12.17% Dubai Creek Harbour −11.81% Dubai Harbour −10.99% Dubai Marina −10.21% DIFC −10.14% Business Bay −9.65% Jumeirah Village Circle — Apartments −8.93% Majan — Apartments +4.10% Discovery Gardens +1.27% International City +0.27% Al Khail Gate — Apartments +2.64% Dubai Investments Park — Apartments +3.02% Barsha Heights +0.30%
Elite Merit Real Estate · Market Intelligence
Dubai Real Estate Market Report — October 2026
Holding Its Ground: Higher Rates, Regional Tension and Record Supply — and Dubai Still Transacted More
Part A
The Market in Plain English
Part A is for everyone. No jargon, no spreadsheets. Every number here is backed by the detailed data in Part B. Where an expert term is unavoidable, it is explained in the Jargon Buster (A9).
The 60-Second Version
- 1
Dubai's property market kept working in October. 17,634 property deals were registered — about 7% more than in September — worth AED 54 billion.
- 2
Prices have stopped falling fast. Homes are roughly 2% cheaper than a year ago on average, and month to month prices are now almost flat. This is a slowdown, not a .
- 3
Borrowing got a little more expensive — the UAE Central Bank raised its to 3.9% in September after the US Federal Reserve's first hike in three years — yet more people took out mortgages in October than in any month since our tracking began in March.
- 4
Buyers increasingly want homes they can move into now. Second-hand ("") homes made up 38% of residential sales, up from 35% Implied a month earlier, and ready-apartment sales hit their highest level since February.
- 5
Renters have the upper hand in prime areas. Rents in places like Downtown, Dubai Hills and Dubai Marina are 10–14% lower than six months ago — but the monthly declines are now getting smaller.
- 6
Two big unknowns shape the next few months: the regional conflict (a ceasefire and peace talks are in place, but tensions remain high) and the 24,000 new homes still due to be before year-end.
The Market Weather Report
- Steady
Homes and properties sold (cash sales)
11,968 deals, +4.8% vs September
Slightly busier than September; still below spring levels
- Steady
Money spent on cash sales
AED 34.98B, +18.1%
Looks strong, but most of the jump came from ~40 very large land and trophy deals. Without them, the typical deal size was unchanged
- Rising
Mortgages
4,633 — the highest monthly count since our series began in March
More buyers are borrowing to buy homes to live in, even after rates rose
- Flat
Prices
About 2% below a year ago; nearly flat month to month
The fall that began in spring has slowed to a crawl. Not rising yet
- Rising
Second-hand homes
38% of residential deals, up from 35% Implied
Buyers prefer finished homes over buying
- Easing
Rents (prime areas)
10–14% lower than six months ago; falling ~1% a month now
Good news for tenants; landlords are negotiating
- Stable
Rents (affordable areas)
Flat to slightly up
Demand for value homes is holding
- Up
Interest rates
UAE base rate 3.90% (raised 0.25 points in September)
Borrowing costs a little more — about AED 210 a month extra on a AED 1.5M mortgage
- Heavy
New homes arriving
~24,000 more due by end-December
More choice for buyers and tenants; pressure on prices in busy new areas
- Tense
Regional situation
Ceasefire and talks; US naval blockade of Iran continues; flights resuming
Uncertainty is weighing on overseas investors' confidence
Five Things That Happened in October
The Big Picture — Where Are We in the Cycle?
Think of Dubai's market as a car. For two years (2024–2025) it was driving at motorway speed — record sales, prices rising by double digits every year. In 2026 it has dropped to city speed. It has not crashed; it has changed gear.
Here is the year so far in four chapters:
- Feb–Apr
1. The shock
Regional war began on 28 February. Sales wobbled in March, then April bounced back strongly (AED 69B registered — the strongest month since the war began; January's AED 72B record came before it)
"Scare, then relief"
- May
2. The pause
Buyers and sellers stood off; sales fell about 27%
"Everyone waited"
- Jun–Aug
3. The summer rush, then the lull
A wave of cheaper new-build apartments sold fast in June–July; then August's usual summer slowdown
"Busy, then quiet"
- Sep–Oct
4. The new normal
Fewer but bigger deals, more mortgages, more second-hand homes, flat prices, falling rents, higher interest rates
"Smaller, steadier, more careful"
Where we are now: the market has absorbed a war, a rate rise and the biggest wave of new homes in more than a decade — and prices are only about 2% below a year ago. That is resilience. But sales are well below last year's record pace (third-quarter sales were 38% below the same period in 2025), and the coming months carry real risks.
What Moved Your Wallet: Interest Rates
What happened: The US Federal Reserve raised its key rate by 0.25 points on 16 September 2026 to a range of 3.75–4.00%. The UAE Central Bank raised its Base Rate from 3.65% to 3.90% the next day. Both held unchanged on 28 October. Two Fed officials voted for another rise, and markets are watching December.
Why the UAE follows the US: The dirham is fixed to the US dollar. To keep that peg stable, UAE interest rates move in step with US rates.
| Mortgage | Rate before | Monthly payment | Rate after (+0.25) | Monthly payment | Extra per month | Extra per year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AED 1.5M over 25 years | 4.25% | AED 8,126 | 4.50% | AED 8,337 | +AED 211 | +AED 2,537 |
| AED 1.5M over 25 years | 4.50% | AED 8,337 | 4.75% | AED 8,552 | +AED 214 | +AED 2,571 |
Assumptions: illustrative mortgage rates; actual rates depend on your bank, product (fixed or variable) and profile. If your mortgage is fixed, nothing changes until the fixed period ends.
The surprising part: despite the rise, 4,633 mortgages were registered in October — the most in any month since our series began in March. Cavendish Maxwell also reported a record AED 21.8 billion in mortgage lending in the third quarter. People buying homes to live in are still borrowing.
The Regional Situation — Facts, Not Fear
What has happened (verified against the Council on Foreign Relations, Britannica and Gulf News):
- 1
US and Israel strike Iran; regional war begins
- 2
Two-week ceasefire; Strait of Hormuz reopened
- 3
US naval blockade of Iranian ports after talks stall
- 4
Interim deal; Hormuz reopened; blockade lifted for a 60-day negotiating window
- 5
Interim truce collapses after attacks on shipping; US strikes
- 6
Blockade reimposed; Hormuz effectively closed to foreign shipping
- 7
Qatar-mediated talks on a draft agreement; blockade continues; isolated shipping incidents; airlines gradually resuming Dubai routes
What it means for Dubai today (as of 5 November): No evacuation orders or airport closures in the UAE; Dubai and Abu Dhabi stock markets stable; UAE airport seat capacity in October was 23% higher than in June, with British Airways, Lufthansa and others returning; Dubai's population reached about 4.81 million in September, up roughly 227,000 since January. But shipping through Hormuz remains severely restricted, oil prices are above pre-war levels, and the UAE government says it hopes for diplomacy while being "braced for the worst". Cavendish Maxwell's third-quarter research states plainly that regional tensions are affecting investor confidence.
| Month | Combined value |
|---|---|
| March | AED 55.84B |
| April | AED 69.21B |
| May | AED 51.74B |
| June | AED 48.04B |
| July | AED 55.66B |
| August | AED 46.15B |
| September | AED 50.71B |
| October | AED 54.04B |
A correction from us: In our July, August and September editions we described the conflict as a receding background risk. After the interim truce collapsed in early July, that understated its weight. The regional situation is one of the reasons sales are well below last year's levels, alongside higher rates and heavy new supply. We have corrected this in our analysis and in the forecast scorecard (Part C).
Is Dubai Property Crashing? Myths vs Reality
- What people are saying
"Dubai property is crashing."
What the data actually showsPrices are about 2% below a year ago. Out of 96 communities we track, 51 are still higher than a year ago. That is a correction, not a crash. A crash would be double-digit falls across the board.
- What people are saying
"The war has stopped people buying."
What the data actually showsOctober saw 17,634 registered deals — more than September — and the highest mortgage count since March. But third-quarter sales were 38% below the record 2025 peak, and overseas investor confidence has been hit. Buying has slowed; it has not stopped.
- What people are saying
"Rents are collapsing everywhere."
What the data actually showsIt depends where. Prime areas are down 10–14% over six months. Value areas such as Discovery Gardens, Al Khail Gate and Barsha Heights are flat or up. One major consultancy (Cavendish Maxwell) even shows average signed rents still 5.5% higher than a year ago — because asking prices fall faster than the rents people actually sign.
- What people are saying
"Higher rates make buying impossible."
What the data actually showsThe September rise adds roughly AED 210 a month to a AED 1.5M mortgage. Noticeable, not decisive — and October mortgage numbers were the highest this year.
- What people are saying
"Off-plan always beats ready property."
What the data actually showsNot right now. Buyers are moving to ready homes, new project launches in Q3 were down more than 70% on a year earlier, and with 24,000 handovers due this quarter, some off-plan buyers face resale prices close to — or below — what they paid.
- What people are saying
"This is the bottom" / "This is the top."
What the data actually showsNobody knows. Anyone claiming certainty is guessing. We set out three scenarios with probabilities in Part C instead.
What This Means for You
This is general information, not personal financial advice. Every situation is different; speak to a licensed adviser before making decisions.
If you own the home you live in
Your home's value has most likely moved within a few percent either way over the past year — and month to month it is now roughly flat. There is no market reason to panic. If you have a variable-rate mortgage, check what the September rate rise means for your payments, and compare refinancing offers if your fixed period is ending.
If you are a landlord
are getting harder. Cavendish Maxwell found that more than 21% of renewals in Q3 were signed at a lower rent (versus under 5% in Q1), and almost 39% at the same rent. In prime areas, price your unit to today's market — an empty month costs more than a modest reduction. In value communities, demand is holding and remain strong (8–10% gross in Dubai Investments Park, International City and Dubai Production City).
If you are renting
In premium areas, this is your strongest negotiating position in years. Rental listings on Property Finder were up 55% in September, while enquiries rose only 15% — so landlords are competing for you. Compare listings before renewing, ask for incentives (flexible cheques, rent-free periods), and know that in October the average new apartment contract in Dubai was AED 81,600 a year.
If you are buying your first home
Conditions favour you: prices are stable, choice is growing fast, and sellers in many areas are negotiating. Budget for slightly higher mortgage costs, get pre-approved, and pay attention to bank valuations — banks have been valuing conservatively. Ready homes let you see exactly what you are buying.
If you are an investor
The days of "buy anything and it goes up" are over for now. The gap between the best and worst-performing communities over the past year is about 57 percentage points (Majan +39% versus Dubai Maritime City −17%). Location and product choice now matter far more than timing. Underwrite rental income on today's rents, not last year's, and be cautious in areas where thousands of new apartments are being handed over.
If you own off-plan property
Check what finished homes in your building or community are actually selling for today — not the launch price. Make sure your completion payments are funded. If you plan to rent out, expect to compete with many new units completing at the same time.
If you are selling
Price to what homes are actually selling for, not to what similar homes are listed at — in the third quarter, Property Monitor data showed average listing prices about 7% above achieved prices. Ready homes in established communities are in demand; use the November–December season, which is traditionally the busiest time of year.
Jargon Buster
DLD
Dubai Land Department — the government body that registers every property sale, mortgage and transfer. Its records are the official source of truth.
Off-plan
Buying a property before it is built, usually on a payment plan, directly from the developer.
Ready / Resale (secondary)
Buying a finished property, usually from its current owner.
Initial sale
The first-ever sale of a unit, from the developer to a buyer (can be off-plan or ready).
Handover
When a newly built property is completed and the keys are given to the buyer.
MoM / YoY
Month-on-month / year-on-year — change compared with the previous month, or the same month last year.
Price per sq ft
Price divided by size. The fairest way to compare homes of different sizes.
Gross rental yield
Annual rent ÷ purchase price, before costs. A AED 1M flat rented at AED 70,000 a year yields 7%.
Base Rate (CBUAE)
The UAE Central Bank's key interest rate. Banks' lending rates move with it.
The peg
The UAE dirham is fixed at AED 3.6725 to the US dollar, so UAE interest rates follow US rates.
Asking vs achieved price
What sellers list for, versus what buyers actually pay. When asking prices are well above achieved prices, deals slow down.
Renewal
When a tenant extends an existing lease. Renewal increases are limited by the official RERA rental index.
Correction vs crash
A correction is a moderate, orderly decline (typically up to ~10–15%). A crash is a rapid, deep, widespread fall. Dubai is currently in a mild correction.
Part B
The Data Reference
Part B is the full professional dataset. Each section opens with a one-line "Bottom line" so it can still be skimmed.
Transaction Summary
Bottom lineVolume up modestly across all three procedures; cash value +18% but driven by a small number of very large registrations; mortgage count at a 2026 high.
Source: DLD area-list exports. Headline totals use the de-duplicated basis (by-project files, equivalently by-community "parent rows only"); the by-community exports list each transaction twice (community subtotal + nested project rows) and their full-column sums are exactly 2× the true total. Verified for October: Sale AED 34.98B by project vs AED 70.03B by-community full column (÷2 = AED 35.01B).
Day-count: October has 31 days vs. September's 30. On a daily-pace basis, cash-sale volume rose +1.4%.
Independent validation: Emirates 24/7 (via Offplan Insider) reports October sales of AED 34.12B across 11,610 transactions; Haus51 reports 11,898 sales / AED 34.7B. This report's 11,968 / AED 34.98B sits within 0.6–3% of both (scope differences: DIFC and direct-sale inclusion).
Asset-class note: The by-project exports contain a small number of duplicated project rows with blank count and total fields (e.g., Harmony, Majestic Vistas, DAMAC Hills — Bel Air). These are excluded from the asset-class split below; headline totals are unaffected.
Data-label note: The DLD Gift exports this month carry a "Mortgage / الرهن" header label (a recurring DLD export mislabel first seen in May). The figures are distinct from the Mortgage file (1,033 vs 4,633 properties) and are treated as Gift.
| Procedure | Properties | Value (AED) | Avg per Property | MoM Volume | MoM Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash Sales (Sale / بيع) | 11,968 | 34.98B | 2.92M | +4.8% | +18.1% |
| Mortgage (الرهن) | 4,633 | 13.26B | 2.86M | +8.8% | −20.9% |
| Gift (هبة) | 1,033 | 5.80B | 5.61M | +29.8% | +33.9% |
| Combined | 17,634 | 54.04B | — | +7.0% | +6.6% |
| Measure | Properties | Value (AED) | Avg Ticket (AED) |
|---|---|---|---|
| All cash sales | 11,968 | 34.98B | 2.92M |
| 11 project lines averaging > AED 50M per property | 42 | 3.74B | 89.0M |
| Cash sales excluding those lines | 11,926 | 31.24B | 2.62M |
| September cash sales (headline) | 11,424 | 29.61B | 2.59M |
Forty-two registrations (0.35% of deals) accounted for 10.7% of cash value — notably Marina Pinnacle (4 registrations, AED 923M), Al Rowaiyah First (Non-Project) land (13, AED 969M), Barsha Heights (Non-Project) (4, AED 603M) and Palm Jabal Ali (Non-Project) (9, AED 539M). Excluding them, the October average ticket (AED 2.62M) was essentially unchanged from September (AED 2.59M). The underlying market was steady, not surging.
| Measure | Properties | Value (AED) | Avg Ticket (AED) |
|---|---|---|---|
| All cash sales | 11,968 | 34.98B | 2.92M |
| 11 project lines averaging > AED 50M per property | 42 | 3.74B | 89.0M |
| Cash sales excluding those lines | 11,926 | 31.24B | 2.62M |
| September cash sales (headline) | 11,424 | 29.61B | 2.59M |
B1.3 · Value by Asset Class
Land reached 37.6% of cash value — the highest share in our eight-month series (range 27.7%–35.7% March–September). Two different things sit inside this figure: (1) plot-based villa launches that DLD registers as land — chiefly Tilal Binghatti (Binghatti's first villa and townhouse master community in Al Rowaiyah, Dubailand: 532 registrations, AED 1.65B of land value) and Palm Jebel Ali Frond F (15, AED 671M); and (2) genuine land and master-plot transfers such as Al Rowaiyah First (Non-Project) (13, AED 969M) and Barsha Heights (Non-Project) (4, AED 603M). The first is end-user and investor housing demand in a different legal wrapper; the second is not.
| Procedure | Land | Building/Villa | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | AED 13.15B (37.6%) | AED 3.93B (11.2%) | AED 17.90B (51.2%) |
| Mortgage | AED 8.13B (61.3%) | AED 1.46B (11.0%) | AED 3.67B (27.7%) |
| Gift | AED 3.68B (63.5%) | AED 0.38B (6.6%) | AED 1.73B (29.9%) |
B1.4 · Mortgage Composition
- 4,633 mortgage registrations — the highest monthly count since our series began in March (previous high: July, 4,454).
- Mortgage value fell 20.9% because September included large land-collateral clusters; October's largest single entries were The St. Regis Residences (1 registration, AED 618M) and Jaddaf Waterfront (Non-Project) (AED 400M).
- Notable volume lines: Sunrise Valley (216 mortgages, AED 324M, avg AED 1.50M) and Al Nahda First (Non-Project) (202, AED 183M) — consistent with handover-linked and end-user financing.
- External corroboration: Cavendish Maxwell recorded a record AED 21.8B of mortgage value across ~10,000 loans in Q3 2026 (+33% QoQ).
| Metric | September | October | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash volume | 11,424 | 11,968 | +4.8% |
| Cash value | AED 29.61B | AED 34.98B | +18.1% |
| Cash value ex-outliers | — | AED 31.24B | — |
| Avg cash ticket | AED 2.59M | AED 2.92M (2.62M ex-outliers) | +12.8% (+1.1% ex-outliers) |
| Mortgage volume | 4,258 | 4,633 | +8.8% |
| Mortgage value | AED 16.77B | AED 13.26B | −20.9% |
| Gift volume | 796 | 1,033 | +29.8% |
| Combined volume | 16,478 | 17,634 | +7.0% |
| Combined value | AED 50.71B | AED 54.04B | +6.6% |
Prices — What Every Gauge Says
Bottom lineFour independent citywide price measures place Dubai prices roughly 1–3% below a year ago; the typical community is close to flat (+0.9%). The month-on-month decline has slowed to near zero.
B2.1 · The Price Thermometers
-
−1.98%Property Monitor DPI (index)Latest: 227.81 (Aug 2026)
Monthly: −0.29%Primary (our series) -
−1.7%Property Monitor citywide avgLatest: AED 1,636/sqft (Aug 2026)
Monthly: —Primary data, reported by The Week -
−2.2%Cavendish Maxwell avg priceLatest: AED 1,644/sqft (Sep 2026)
Monthly: +0.3% QoQReputable consultancy, via Construction Week -
−1.27%REIDIN Residential Sales Price IndexLatest: Sep 2026
Monthly: Small rise in SeptemberReputable index, via GlobalPropertyGuide -
+0.89% (median)PM Sales Index — median of 96 communitiesLatest: Oct 2026
Monthly: −0.31% (median)Primary (our series)
| Gauge | Latest reading | Year-on-year | Latest monthly move | Source quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Property Monitor DPI (index) | 227.81 (Aug 2026) | −1.98% | −0.29% | Primary (our series) |
| Property Monitor citywide avg | AED 1,636/sqft (Aug 2026) | −1.7% | — | Primary data, reported by The Week |
| Cavendish Maxwell avg price | AED 1,644/sqft (Sep 2026) | −2.2% | +0.3% QoQ | Reputable consultancy, via Construction Week |
| REIDIN Residential Sales Price Index | Sep 2026 | −1.27% | Small rise in September | Reputable index, via GlobalPropertyGuide |
| PM Sales Index — median of 96 communities | Oct 2026 | +0.89% (median) | −0.31% (median) | Primary (our series) |
| Period | Communities down | Communities up | Flat | Median change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 months | 44 | 51 | 1 | +0.89% |
| 6 months | 65 | 31 | 0 | −3.53% |
| 3 months | 70 | 26 | 0 | −2.01% |
| 1 month (Sep→Oct) | 56 | 38 | 2 | −0.31% |
Reading the breadth: In September, 32 of 95 communities (34%) were below year-earlier levels and the median 12-month change was +2.81%; in October it is 44 of 96 (46%), with the median down to +0.89%. Annual comparisons are weakening as the strong late-2025 base rolls in. The monthly picture, however, is improving: 65 of 95 communities fell month-on-month in September (median −0.59%), against 56 of 96 in October (median −0.31%). The six-month column (median −3.53%) captures the spring–summer correction; the one-month column shows it flattening out.
Correction to our September edition: that report described "roughly a quarter" of communities as negative year-on-year; the correct figure was a third (32 of 95).
| Strongest | 12-mo | Weakest | 12-mo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Majan (Apartments) | +39.39% | Dubai Maritime City | −17.43% |
| Barsha Heights | +33.37% | Jumeirah Bay Island (Apartments) | −17.14% |
| Jaddaf Waterfront (Apartments) | +29.65% | Wasl Gate (Villas) | −14.64% |
| Jumeirah Village Triangle (Villas) | +29.47% | Dubai Festival City | −13.99% |
| Palm Jumeirah Fronds (Garden Homes) | +29.16% | Dubai Hills Estate (Villas) | −12.46% |
Spread: ~57 percentage points (September: ~55). Community selection, not market direction, is determining outcomes.
New Homes vs. Second-Hand Homes (Initial Sale vs. Resale)
Bottom lineResale rose to 37.9% of residential deals (from 35.4% Implied); every independent tracker confirms the shift toward completed homes.
| Segment | Initial Sale Vol / Value | Resale Vol / Value | Resale Share (Vol) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apartment | 5,542 / AED 8,405.3M | 2,970 / AED 5,616.6M | 34.9% |
| Townhouse | 625 / AED 2,383.9M | 562 / AED 2,059.4M | 47.3% |
| Villa | 168 / AED 2,552.5M | 327 / AED 4,075.6M | 66.1% |
| Total | 6,335 / AED 13,341.7M | 3,859 / AED 11,751.6M | 37.9% |
| Segment | Initial Sale MoM (Vol / Value) | Resale MoM (Vol / Value) |
|---|---|---|
| Apartment | −7.15% / −2.20% | +9.72% / +3.08% |
| Townhouse | +55.09% / +14.48% | −3.44% / +3.71% |
| Villa | +66.34% / +27.76% | +30.28% / −13.00% |
| Total (implied) | −2.1% / +5.3% | +9.0% / −3.0% |
| Resale share | Sep 35.4% Implied → Oct 37.9% (by count); 48.9% Implied → 46.8% (by value) |
| Source | Measure | October 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Springfield Properties (via Zawya / Economy Middle East) | Secondary market | 3,851 transactions / AED 11.74B (+9.28% vol, +10.82% value MoM); off-plan > 62% of residential transactions |
| Arabian Business (DLD data) | Ready apartments | 2,988 sales / AED 5.28B (+22.6% vol, +25.7% value MoM) — highest since February |
| Emirates 24/7 (via Offplan Insider) | Off-plan share, all sales | ~58% of deals, ~38% of value |
| Projectory (DLD data) | Ready vs off-plan homes | Ready sales +13.8% MoM; off-plan −7.7% |
Property Monitor's resale count (3,859 / AED 11.75B) matches Springfield's secondary-market count (3,851 / AED 11.74B) to within 0.2%. Every source agrees: off-plan's share is at its lowest level of 2026, and the ready/resale market is gaining.
Developers' new-home sales were roughly flat (−2.1%) while resales grew +9.0%. Two forces are at work: supply — thousands of handed-over units are entering the resale pool — and preference — in an uncertain environment, buyers want a finished, inspectable, immediately lettable asset. Cavendish Maxwell's Q3 data adds context: project launches were down more than 70% year-on-year, and only ~17% of initial off-plan sales in the first nine months were for projects launched in 2026. The off-plan engine is running on older inventory.
Segment Detail — What Sold, by Property Type
Bottom lineApartments flat; townhouses and villas busier; average apartment AED 1.7M at AED 1,907/sqft.
- Value
- AED 14,182.2M
- Avg price
- 1.7M
- AED/sqft
- 1,907
- Avg BUA
- 871 sqft
- MoM vol
- −2.13%
- MoM value
- −0.13%
- Value
- AED 8,405.3M
- Avg price
- 1.5M
- AED/sqft
- 1,915
- Avg BUA
- 792 sqft
- MoM vol
- −7.15%
- MoM value
- −2.20%
- Value
- AED 5,616.6M
- Avg price
- 1.9M
- AED/sqft
- 1,870
- Avg BUA
- 1,011 sqft
- MoM vol
- +9.72%
- MoM value
- +3.08%
- Value
- AED 4,443.3M
- Avg price
- 3.7M
- AED/sqft
- 1,389
- Avg BUA
- 2,653 sqft
- MoM vol
- +20.51%
- MoM value
- +8.47%
- Value
- AED 2,383.9M
- Avg price
- 3.8M
- AED/sqft
- 1,358
- Avg BUA
- 2,724 sqft
- MoM vol
- +55.09%
- MoM value
- +14.48%
- Value
- AED 2,059.4M
- Avg price
- 3.7M
- AED/sqft
- 1,426
- Avg BUA
- 2,575 sqft
- MoM vol
- −3.44%
- MoM value
- +3.71%
- Value
- AED 6,628.1M
- Avg price
- 13.4M
- AED/sqft
- 2,351
- Avg BUA
- 5,316 sqft
- MoM vol
- +40.63%
- MoM value
- −1.74%
- Value
- AED 2,552.5M
- Avg price
- 15.2M
- AED/sqft
- 2,544
- Avg BUA
- 5,790 sqft
- MoM vol
- +66.34%
- MoM value
- +27.76%
- Value
- AED 4,075.6M
- Avg price
- 12.5M
- AED/sqft
- 2,239
- Avg BUA
- 5,075 sqft
- MoM vol
- +30.28%
- MoM value
- −13.00%
| Segment | Volume | Value (AED) | Avg Price | Avg AED/sqft | Avg BUA | MoM Vol | MoM Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apartment — All | 8,542 | 14,182.2M | 1.7M | 1,907 | 871 sqft | −2.13% | −0.13% |
| Apartment — Initial | 5,542 | 8,405.3M | 1.5M | 1,915 | 792 sqft | −7.15% | −2.20% |
| Apartment — Resale | 2,970 | 5,616.6M | 1.9M | 1,870 | 1,011 sqft | +9.72% | +3.08% |
| Townhouse — All | 1,187 | 4,443.3M | 3.7M | 1,389 | 2,653 sqft | +20.51% | +8.47% |
| Townhouse — Initial | 625 | 2,383.9M | 3.8M | 1,358 | 2,724 sqft | +55.09% | +14.48% |
| Townhouse — Resale | 562 | 2,059.4M | 3.7M | 1,426 | 2,575 sqft | −3.44% | +3.71% |
| Villa — All | 495 | 6,628.1M | 13.4M | 2,351 | 5,316 sqft | +40.63% | −1.74% |
| Villa — Initial | 168 | 2,552.5M | 15.2M | 2,544 | 5,790 sqft | +66.34% | +27.76% |
| Villa — Resale | 327 | 4,075.6M | 12.5M | 2,239 | 5,075 sqft | +30.28% | −13.00% |
| Residential Total | 10,224 | 25,253.6M | — | — | — | +1.6% | +0.8% |
Note on scope: Property Monitor's new tool records September residential sales at ~10,065 (implied), against 9,123 in the prior-format September reconstruction. The difference reflects classification scope; MoM changes above use the tool's own like-for-like comparison.
- Initial and resale apartment pricing has converged (AED 1,915 vs 1,870/sqft, a 2.4% gap). Resale apartments are also larger on average (1,011 vs 792 sqft) — buyers get more space per dirham in the secondary market.
- Villas were the busiest segment in growth terms (+40.6% volume), led by initial sales in The Heights Country Club, Grand Polo Club, The Next Chapter, Palm Jebel Ali and Sobha Sanctuary. The resale villa value decline (−13%) reflects fewer trophy transactions, not repricing: volume rose 30%.
Where People Bought — Top Locations
| Rank | Apartments — All | Apartments — Initial | Apartments — Resale |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jumeirah Village Circle — 795 | Dubai South — 644 | Jumeirah Village Circle — 361 |
| 2 | Dubai South — 701 | Jumeirah Village Circle — 434 | Business Bay — 254 |
| 3 | Dubai Land Residence Complex — 388 | Dubai Land Residence Complex — 314 | International City — 134 |
| 4 | Business Bay — 331 | Downtown Jebel Ali — 310 | Downtown Dubai — 132 |
| 5 | Downtown Jebel Ali — 318 | Majan — 267 | Dubai Marina — 127 |
| 6 | Majan — 313 | Motor City — 243 | Dubai Hills Estate — 118 |
| 7 | Motor City — 284 | Liwan — 178 | Dubai Creek Harbour — 109 |
| 8 | Arjan — 239 | — | Arjan — 97 |
| Rank | Townhouses — All | Townhouses — Resale | Villas — All | Villas — Resale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DAMAC Islands 2 — 122 | DAMAC Lagoons — 94 | MBR City — 34 | Tilal Al Ghaf — 23 |
| 2 | Dubai Investments Park — 96 | The Valley — 56 | Tilal Al Ghaf — 23 | MBR City — 21 |
| 3 | DAMAC Lagoons — 95 | Mudon — 41 | Dubai South — 22 | Dubai Hills Estate — 17 |
| 4 | Greenz by Danube — 93 | DAMAC Hills 2 — 33 | The Valley — 22 | The Valley — 17 |
| 5 | DAMAC Hills 2 — 86 | Arabian Ranches 3 — 29 | Palm Jebel Ali — 21 | Dubai South — 16 |
| 6 | The Valley — 82 | Dubai South — 22 | Grand Polo Club — 19 | DAMAC Lagoons — 15 |
Demand signal (Property Monitor Demand Trends, qualitative): Jumeirah Village Circle led all four demand measures in October — share of sale listings (8.7%), views (7.7%), buyer leads (8.3%) and transactions (7.9%) — making it the city's most balanced, liquid mass-market community. Business Bay attracted 6.4% of buyer leads but only 3.2% of transactions: high interest, low conversion, consistent with a price gap between buyers and sellers there. (Demand-index time series in the export are single-day chart readings and are not used quantitatively.)
Community Price Benchmarks — Full Sales Index
Achievable median AED/sqft with trailing 12-, 6-, 3- and 1-month changes. Communities with very few transactions are flagged; their percentage moves are statistically unstable.
B6.1–B6.2 · Full heatmap
| Community | AED/sqft | 12-mo | 6-mo | 3-mo | 1-mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jumeirah Bay Island - Apartments | 9,415 | −17.14% | −12.71% | −1.99% | 0.00% |
| Bluewaters Island | 5,058 | −5.72% | −9.63% | −5.49% | −0.03% |
| Dubai Harbour | 3,212 | −9.88% | −5.41% | −3.14% | +0.07% |
| Dubai Water Canal - Apartments | 3,180 | +7.22% | +2.83% | +6.73% | +0.66% |
| City Walk | 2,782 | +1.60% | −4.26% | −4.04% | +1.17% |
| Madinat Jumeirah Living - Apartments | 2,578 | −9.42% | −12.10% | −2.02% | +1.19% |
| Palm Jumeirah - Apartments | 2,479 | −1.86% | −9.43% | −4.10% | +1.30% |
| Downtown Dubai | 2,477 | −1.57% | −2.36% | +1.82% | −0.86% |
| The Hills | 2,408 | −4.05% | −4.60% | −6.48% | −6.83% |
| Dubai Creek Harbour | 2,249 | −2.00% | −5.75% | −3.17% | −1.03% |
| Dubai Hills Estate - Apartments | 2,227 | −3.33% | −7.58% | −3.72% | −0.82% |
| DIFC | 2,100 | −0.25% | −8.36% | −3.39% | +1.66% |
| Al Jaddaf - Apartments | 2,051 | −5.73% | −21.50% | −17.24% | −0.17% |
| Al Barari - Apartments | 2,027 | +16.66% | +2.18% | +2.88% | +0.30% |
| Sobha Hartland - Apartments | 1,972 | −6.60% | −6.65% | −2.35% | −0.80% |
| The Views - Apartments | 1,969 | −0.40% | −4.30% | −3.16% | +0.58% |
| Jaddaf Waterfront - Apartments | 1,922 | +29.65% | +23.13% | +5.72% | +0.72% |
| Dubai Marina | 1,826 | +0.87% | −3.56% | −1.02% | −2.33% |
| Al Habtoor City | 1,809 | +0.42% | −5.61% | −1.38% | −0.17% |
| Business Bay | 1,806 | −0.36% | −5.91% | −3.49% | −0.38% |
| Dubai Maritime City | 1,753 | −17.43% | −14.94% | −12.37% | −1.68% |
| Jumeirah Heights - Apartments | 1,719 | +5.61% | +4.73% | −4.54% | −4.45% |
| Dubai Healthcare City 2 - Apartments | 1,702 | +11.84% | −1.00% | +0.91% | +1.54% |
| Meydan - Apartments | 1,700 | +10.65% | +10.49% | +3.11% | −0.65% |
| The Greens - Apartments | 1,686 | +2.59% | −3.49% | −2.28% | −1.21% |
| Jumeirah Beach Residence | 1,584 | −7.43% | −9.99% | −3.53% | +2.18% |
| Jumeirah Golf Estates - Apartments | 1,529 | +9.16% | −3.36% | −2.43% | −0.20% |
| Zabeel | 1,459 | +3.77% | −5.02% | −6.80% | +1.76% |
| Barsha Heights | 1,418 | +33.37% | +11.01% | −0.86% | +6.86% |
| Jumeirah Lakes Towers | 1,400 | −2.26% | −3.72% | −1.94% | −0.33% |
| Arjan | 1,377 | +6.97% | +0.96% | −0.22% | +0.22% |
| Wasl Gate - Apartments | 1,366 | +0.61% | −7.08% | −6.90% | −0.61% |
| Dubai Science Park (DuBiotech) | 1,339 | −6.42% | −3.49% | −1.34% | +1.18% |
| Dubai Festival City | 1,333 | −13.99% | −8.36% | −2.59% | +1.67% |
| Town Square - Apartments | 1,312 | −0.47% | −4.91% | −2.61% | −0.36% |
| DAMAC Hills - Apartments | 1,295 | −0.25% | −6.22% | −3.92% | −1.73% |
| Majan - Apartments | 1,273 | +39.39% | +31.11% | +14.93% | −0.05% |
| Al Furjan - Apartments | 1,252 | −1.30% | −4.17% | −4.67% | −2.77% |
| Al Barsha - Apartments | 1,201 | −6.70% | −4.67% | −0.03% | −2.12% |
| Dubai South Residential District | 1,092 | +8.05% | +1.25% | −0.86% | −1.15% |
| Rukan - Apartments | 1,092 | −1.63% | −6.27% | −7.41% | −2.31% |
| Dubai Studio City | 1,036 | +4.37% | +3.61% | +3.15% | +0.61% |
| DAMAC Hills 2 - Apartments | 1,035 | −1.05% | −5.75% | −2.12% | +2.38% |
| Living Legends - Apartments | 1,031 | +14.17% | +1.16% | +0.94% | −4.33% |
| Motor City - Apartments | 1,001 | −0.40% | −1.77% | −0.32% | −0.92% |
| Dubai Production City | 976 | −1.58% | −3.74% | −4.99% | −1.00% |
| Dubai Silicon Oasis - Apartments | 972 | +6.99% | +3.10% | +1.58% | +1.32% |
| Al Khail Heights | 971 | +22.95% | +5.90% | +0.53% | −0.36% |
| Dubai Sports City - Apartments | 960 | +7.13% | +2.87% | −1.28% | +0.30% |
| Remraam | 936 | +4.33% | −2.24% | −1.99% | −0.11% |
| Discovery Gardens | 924 | +6.50% | −7.52% | −6.48% | −1.26% |
| Liwan | 871 | +13.98% | +4.99% | −3.38% | +0.52% |
| Dubai Residence Complex | 833 | +0.90% | +2.58% | +0.93% | +0.13% |
| Dubai Investments Park - Apartments | 702 | −3.59% | −8.33% | −2.79% | +0.21% |
| International City | 663 | +2.71% | −0.74% | +0.53% | +0.96% |
| Palm Jumeirah Fronds - Garden Homes | 8,725 | +29.16% | +16.86% | +8.55% | −0.76% |
| Jumeirah Bay Island - Villas*Small sample: communities with very few transactions are flagged; their percentage moves are statistically unstable. | 6,422 | 0.00% | +38.86% | +13.80% | +9.18% |
| Jumeirah Islands | 4,504 | +6.76% | +0.92% | −8.73% | −3.72% |
| The Meadows - Villas | 3,112 | +3.53% | −4.64% | −3.07% | −4.08% |
| The Lakes - Villas | 2,562 | −9.31% | −14.43% | −9.08% | −0.58% |
| Jumeirah Golf Estates - Villas | 2,489 | +17.09% | +15.68% | +11.39% | +2.93% |
| Dubai Hills Estate - Villas | 2,411 | −12.46% | −13.30% | −6.30% | −4.03% |
| Sobha Hartland - Villas | 2,317 | −2.50% | −6.44% | −14.35% | −3.88% |
| The Springs - Villas | 2,216 | +5.50% | −1.73% | −2.18% | −0.75% |
| Dubai Sports City - Villas | 2,215 | +23.88% | +6.90% | +0.79% | +5.65% |
| Arabian Ranches | 2,182 | +2.77% | −6.00% | −5.52% | −0.29% |
| Jumeirah Village Triangle - Villas | 2,125 | +29.47% | +12.94% | +8.18% | −1.65% |
| Jumeirah Park | 2,085 | +2.15% | −3.49% | −1.41% | +1.71% |
| Tilal Al Ghaf | 2,003 | +2.24% | −1.33% | +0.47% | −0.07% |
| Dubai Science Park (DuBiotech) - Villas | 1,820 | −1.06% | +1.36% | +0.45% | +0.10% |
| Arabian Ranches 2 | 1,790 | −1.98% | −4.30% | −1.73% | −1.21% |
| The Villa | 1,767 | +11.60% | +4.50% | +2.67% | +2.80% |
| DAMAC Hills - Villas | 1,761 | +4.11% | +3.74% | −1.77% | −1.41% |
| Motor City - Villas | 1,723 | +15.65% | +5.31% | +0.26% | +1.92% |
| Meydan - Villas | 1,684 | +8.34% | −5.33% | −4.57% | −0.43% |
| Al Furjan - Villas | 1,609 | −4.70% | −6.41% | +1.36% | +1.01% |
| Serena | 1,572 | +10.23% | +2.80% | −0.77% | −0.86% |
| Arabian Ranches 3 | 1,570 | +0.95% | −7.54% | −2.97% | +0.50% |
| Mudon | 1,524 | −0.61% | −6.90% | −5.68% | −2.51% |
| Villanova - Villas | 1,507 | −0.71% | −2.92% | −0.34% | 0.00% |
| Living Legends - Villas | 1,438 | −5.41% | −7.85% | −8.25% | −5.57% |
| Reem Townhouses | 1,391 | +4.95% | −0.76% | −0.48% | −0.68% |
| Dubai Silicon Oasis - Villas | 1,369 | +6.65% | +3.67% | +5.46% | +4.17% |
| Town Square Townhouses | 1,346 | +4.01% | −3.13% | −1.81% | −0.43% |
| Wasl Gate - Villas | 1,346 | −14.64% | −23.84% | −11.82% | −6.61% |
| Dubai South Residential District - Villas | 1,339 | +4.32% | +0.57% | −2.25% | −1.57% |
| The Valley | 1,336 | −3.55% | −10.37% | −6.93% | −2.09% |
| Rukan - Villas | 1,330 | −0.07% | −4.17% | −1.97% | +0.87% |
| Jumeirah Village Triangle - Apartments | 1,285 | +4.03% | −3.24% | +1.92% | +1.09% |
| The Sustainable City - Villas | 1,274 | −5.14% | +3.52% | −1.60% | +0.09% |
| Jumeirah Village Circle - Apartments | 1,247 | −2.82% | −8.29% | −4.19% | −1.01% |
| DAMAC Lagoons - Villas | 1,155 | +3.46% | −6.12% | −3.54% | −0.94% |
| Jumeirah Village Circle - Villas | 1,130 | +9.69% | +3.50% | +3.24% | −2.32% |
| Falcon City of Wonders | 1,129 | −6.19% | −10.03% | −6.08% | −5.45% |
| Nad Al Sheba - Villas*Small sample: communities with very few transactions are flagged; their percentage moves are statistically unstable. | 1,060 | +4.62% | −0.24% | −0.87% | −2.35% |
| DAMAC Hills 2 - Villas | 854 | −0.90% | −2.74% | −2.77% | +0.23% |
B6.3 · Benchmark Read
- Prime ready apartments are within a few percent of a year ago. Downtown Dubai AED 2,477/sqft (−1.57% YoY), Dubai Marina 1,826 (+0.87%), Palm Jumeirah apartments 2,479 (−1.86%), Business Bay 1,806 (−0.36%), City Walk 2,782 (+1.60%), Dubai Creek Harbour 2,249 (−2.00%), Dubai Hills Estate apartments 2,227 (−3.33%). The prime floor identified in August is still holding.
- High-supply mid-market apartments carry the correction. Jumeirah Village Circle apartments are −8.29% over six months (−2.82% YoY); Rukan −7.41% over three months; Al Furjan apartments −4.67% over three months. These are the districts receiving the most handovers.
- Villas have split in two. Scarcity and lifestyle villa enclaves remain the best performers over twelve months — Jumeirah Village Triangle villas +29.47%, Palm Jumeirah Garden Homes +29.16%, Dubai Sports City villas +23.88%, Jumeirah Golf Estates villas +17.09%. Larger established villa districts are now negative: Dubai Hills Estate villas −12.46% YoY, Wasl Gate villas −14.64%, Arabian Ranches −6.00% over six months.
- Momentum leaders are cooling, not reversing. Majan (+39.39% YoY) was flat in October (−0.05%); Jaddaf Waterfront (+29.65% YoY) rose +0.72%.
Sales Price Movement — Month-on-Month
Bottom lineFewer communities fell than in September, and by less. Prime apartments were mixed; several established villa districts weakened.
| Community | Median (AED/sqft) | MoM Change | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jumeirah Bay Island — Villas | 6,422 | +9.18% | Small sample |
| Barsha Heights | 1,418 | +6.86% | Rebound after −7.00% in September (mix-driven) |
| Dubai Sports City — Villas | 2,215 | +5.65% | |
| Dubai Silicon Oasis — Villas | 1,369 | +4.17% | |
| Jumeirah Golf Estates — Villas | 2,489 | +2.93% | Second strong month (+7.46% in September) |
| The Villa | 1,767 | +2.80% | |
| DAMAC Hills 2 — Apartments | 1,035 | +2.38% | |
| Jumeirah Beach Residence | 1,584 | +2.18% | Rebound after −4.15% in September |
| Motor City — Villas | 1,723 | +1.92% | Rebound after −7.47% in September |
| Zabeel | 1,459 | +1.76% | |
| Jumeirah Park | 2,085 | +1.71% | |
| Dubai Festival City | 1,333 | +1.67% | |
| DIFC | 2,100 | +1.66% | |
| Palm Jumeirah — Apartments | 2,479 | +1.30% |
| Community | Median (AED/sqft) | MoM Change | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Hills | 2,408 | −6.83% | Second consecutive decline (−3.08% in September) |
| Wasl Gate — Villas | 1,346 | −6.61% | −23.84% over six months |
| Living Legends — Villas | 1,438 | −5.57% | |
| Falcon City of Wonders | 1,129 | −5.45% | |
| Jumeirah Heights — Apartments | 1,719 | −4.45% | |
| Living Legends — Apartments | 1,031 | −4.33% | |
| The Meadows — Villas | 3,112 | −4.08% | |
| Dubai Hills Estate — Villas | 2,411 | −4.03% | −12.46% YoY |
| Sobha Hartland — Villas | 2,317 | −3.88% | −14.35% over three months |
| Jumeirah Islands | 4,504 | −3.72% | Reversal after +4.30% in September |
| Al Furjan — Apartments | 1,252 | −2.77% | |
| Mudon | 1,524 | −2.51% | |
| Dubai Marina | 1,826 | −2.33% | Second monthly decline |
| Jumeirah Village Circle — Villas | 1,130 | −2.32% |
| Measure | September | October | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Communities falling month-on-month | 65 of 95 (68%) | 56 of 96 (58%) | Improving |
| Median monthly change | −0.59% | −0.31% | Improving |
| Communities below year-earlier level | 32 of 95 (34%) | 44 of 96 (46%) | Weakening (base effect) |
| Median 12-month change | +2.81% | +0.89% | Weakening (base effect) |
The monthly picture improved while the annual picture worsened. Both are true at once: the pace of decline is slowing, but each month the year-ago comparison is made against a stronger late-2025 base. Expect annual figures to keep deteriorating through year-end even if monthly prices stabilise. Several large September swings (Barsha Heights, Motor City villas, JBR, Jumeirah Islands) reversed in October — a reminder that single-month moves in thinly traded communities are often noise.
Top Projects and Communities
Bottom lineBinghatti's first villa community topped the city; trophy and land deals drove value; Jumeirah Village Circle remained the busiest community by count.
Tilal Binghatti
It is Binghatti's first villa and townhouse master community (Al Rowaiyah, Dubailand), registered by DLD as land plots.
This is the clearest October evidence of developers pivoting toward ground-level family product.
| Month | Cash sales |
|---|---|
| June | 2,577 |
| August | 1,833 |
| September | 770 |
| October | 665 |
Asset Type shows any DLD value column (Land, Villa/Building, Units) above 15% of the line's value. Plot-based villa projects are registered by DLD as land.
| # | Name | Properties | Value (AED M) | Avg (AED M) | Asset Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tilal Binghatti | 532 | 1,682.9 | 3.16 | Land |
| 2 | Al Rowaiyah First (Non-Project) | 13 | 969.1 | 74.55 | Land |
| 3 | Marina Pinnacle | 4 | 922.5 | 230.63 | Units |
| 4 | Palm Jebel Ali - The Beach and Coral Collection - Frond F | 15 | 670.9 | 44.73 | Land |
| 5 | BARSHA HEIGHTS (Non-Project) | 4 | 603.3 | 150.83 | Land |
| 6 | Palm Jabal Ali (Non-Project) | 9 | 538.6 | 59.84 | Land |
| 7 | Greenz By Danube | 99 | 472.1 | 4.77 | Villa/Bldg |
| 8 | PALM JUMEIRAH (Non-Project) | 25 | 454.0 | 18.16 | Land + Units |
| 9 | Eden Hills | 9 | 330.2 | 36.69 | Land |
| 10 | Raw District 2 By Imtiaz | 254 | 319.4 | 1.26 | Units |
| 11 | DUBAI INDUSTRIAL CITY (Non-Project) | 10 | 297.2 | 29.72 | Land |
| 12 | Valia | 102 | 282.2 | 2.77 | Units |
| 13 | Bay Estate | 29 | 265.5 | 9.16 | Land |
| 14 | Bureau Lamar | 5 | 265.3 | 53.07 | Units |
| # | Name | Properties | Value (AED M) | Avg (AED M) | Asset Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tilal Binghatti | 532 | 1,682.9 | 3.16 | Land |
| 2 | Raw District 2 By Imtiaz | 254 | 319.4 | 1.26 | Units |
| 3 | Binghatti Skyterraces | 210 | 234.9 | 1.12 | Units |
| 4 | Damac Lagoons - Lagoon Views 13 | 176 | 144.3 | 0.82 | Units |
| 5 | Qpoint Liwan-Plot R062 | 169 | 177.6 | 1.05 | Units |
| 6 | Azizi Venice 7 | 133 | 101.2 | 0.76 | Units |
| 7 | Arancia Yards 2 By Beyond | 116 | 182.6 | 1.57 | Units |
| 8 | Binghatti Skyflame 1 | 113 | 106.8 | 0.94 | Units |
| 9 | INTERNATIONAL CITY PH 1 (Non-Project) | 111 | 81.3 | 0.73 | Land + Units |
| 10 | Valia | 102 | 282.2 | 2.77 | Units |
| 11 | Greenz By Danube | 99 | 472.1 | 4.77 | Villa/Bldg |
| 12 | Serenz by Danube | 91 | 119.1 | 1.31 | Units |
| # | Name | Properties | Value (AED M) | Avg (AED M) | Asset Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Rowaiyah First | 644 | 3,124.1 | 4.85 | Land + Villa/Bldg |
| 2 | Business Bay | 446 | 1,715.6 | 3.85 | Units |
| 3 | Palm Jabal Ali | 44 | 1,437.1 | 32.66 | Land |
| 4 | Dubai Marina | 156 | 1,356.1 | 8.69 | Units |
| 5 | Palm Jumeirah | 97 | 1,138.6 | 11.74 | Land + Units |
| 6 | Al Yufrah 1 | 269 | 1,081.2 | 4.02 | Land + Villa/Bldg |
| 7 | Jumeirah Village Circle | 851 | 997.1 | 1.17 | Units |
| 8 | Madinat Al Mataar | 665 | 903.9 | 1.36 | Villa/Bldg + Units |
| 9 | Palm Deira | 192 | 861.2 | 4.49 | Land + Units |
| 10 | Al Hebiah Fifth | 416 | 827.8 | 1.99 | Land + Units |
| 11 | Burj Khalifa | 169 | 742.8 | 4.40 | Units |
| 12 | Wadi Al Safa 3 | 137 | 658.4 | 4.81 | Land + Villa/Bldg + Units |
| # | Name | Properties | Value (AED M) | Avg (AED M) | Asset Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palm Deira | 7 | 624.6 | 89.22 | Land |
| 2 | Jaddaf Waterfront | 21 | 489.1 | 23.29 | Land + Units |
| 3 | Nad Al Shiba First | 305 | 461.1 | 1.51 | Land |
| 4 | Jumeirah Village Circle | 321 | 454.4 | 1.42 | Land + Units |
| 5 | Burj Khalifa | 91 | 434.0 | 4.77 | Land + Units |
| 6 | Dubai Hills | 94 | 400.4 | 4.26 | Land + Villa/Bldg + Units |
| 7 | Palm Jumeirah | 62 | 368.1 | 5.94 | Land + Units |
| 8 | Sobha Heartland | 97 | 353.1 | 3.64 | Land + Units |
| 9 | Business Bay | 193 | 329.0 | 1.70 | Units |
| 10 | Emirate Living | 52 | 325.2 | 6.25 | Land + Villa/Bldg |
| # | Name | Properties | Value (AED M) | Avg (AED M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jumeirah Village Circle | 321 | 454.4 | 1.42 |
| 2 | Nad Al Shiba First | 305 | 461.1 | 1.51 |
| 3 | Al Nahda First | 202 | 183.0 | 0.91 |
| 4 | Business Bay | 193 | 329.0 | 1.70 |
| 5 | Discovery Gardens | 144 | 55.8 | 0.39 |
| 6 | Al Hebiah Fifth | 141 | 294.5 | 2.09 |
| 7 | Al Furjan | 130 | 179.7 | 1.38 |
| 8 | Madinat Hind 4 | 121 | 161.5 | 1.33 |
| 9 | Arjan | 103 | 95.6 | 0.93 |
| 10 | Sobha Heartland | 97 | 353.1 | 3.64 |
| # | Name | Properties | Value (AED M) | Avg (AED M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palm Jumeirah | 72 | 743.4 | 10.32 |
| 2 | Me'Aisem Second | 25 | 368.7 | 14.75 |
| 3 | Dubai Hills | 27 | 292.1 | 10.82 |
| 4 | Business Bay | 61 | 239.2 | 3.92 |
| 5 | Jumeira Bay | 1 | 229.0 | 228.97 |
| 6 | Dubai Investment Park Second | 32 | 226.6 | 7.08 |
| 7 | Me'Aisem First | 31 | 212.1 | 6.84 |
| 8 | Palm Jabal Ali | 7 | 201.0 | 28.71 |
| 9 | Dubai Marina | 65 | 169.7 | 2.61 |
| 10 | Burj Khalifa | 46 | 169.0 | 3.67 |
B8.7 · Key Project and Community Insights
- Tilal Binghatti was the single largest project of the month — 532 registrations, AED 1.68B, average AED 3.16M. It is Binghatti's first villa and townhouse master community (Al Rowaiyah, Dubailand), registered by DLD as land plots. Together with Al Rowaiyah First (Non-Project) land, it made Al Rowaiyah First the city's top community by value (644 deals, AED 3.12B). This is the clearest October evidence of developers pivoting toward ground-level family product.
- Jumeirah Village Circle was the busiest community by count for a second month (851 cash sales, AED 1.17M average; 321 mortgages). Madinat Al Mataar (Dubai South) continued to cool: 2,577 in June → 1,833 in August → 770 in September → 665 in October.
- Affordable off-plan is still selling, at lower intensity. RAW District 2 by Imtiaz (254), Binghatti Skyterraces (210), DAMAC Lagoons — Lagoon Views 13 (176, AED 0.82M average), QPoint Liwan (169) and Azizi Venice 7 (133) lead by count — but no single project approaches the 500–1,000-unit monthly runs seen in June–July.
- Trophy and land transactions inflated value. Marina Pinnacle (4 registrations, AED 922.5M), Palm Jebel Ali villa plots (Frond F and Non-Project, AED 1.21B combined), Barsha Heights (Non-Project) land (AED 603M) and Eden Hills (9, AED 330M) — see the outlier analysis in B1.2.
- Mortgage demand is broad-based and end-user led. The busiest mortgage communities are mid-market family locations — JVC (321), Nad Al Shiba First (305), Al Nahda First (202), Business Bay (193), Discovery Gardens (144), Al Furjan (130). Sunrise Valley (216 mortgages at AED 1.50M average) is consistent with handover-linked financing.
- Gifts reached 1,033 transfers (AED 5.80B) — the highest count in our series — concentrated in Palm Jumeirah (72; AED 743M). Gift transfers are typically family and estate-planning moves; they are excluded from pricing analysis.
Developer Rankings
Bottom lineBinghatti kept the volume lead; Emaar kept the value lead; the top four are within 165 deals of each other. Established master developers now sell mostly resale; newer developers sell mostly first-hand.
Developer tables count every residential sale of a developer's product — first-hand (initial) and second-hand (resale). MoM comparisons with September are indicative (the export format changed in October).
| Month | Azizi | Binghatti | Emaar | DAMAC | Volume Leader | Leader ÷ #2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May | 1,601 | 798 | — | — | Azizi | 2.0× |
| June | 3,388 | 822 | 789 | — | Azizi | 4.0× |
| July | 3,446 | 613 | 913 | — | Azizi | 3.8× |
| August | 2,389 | 594 | 1,065 | — | Azizi | 2.2× |
| September | 843 | 1,173 | 1,024 | 850 | Binghatti | 1.1× |
| October | 849 | 1,014 | 950 | 940 | Binghatti | 1.07× |
| Rank | Developer | Volume | Value (AED M) | MoM Volume | Initial / Resale Split |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Binghatti | 1,014 | 1,380 | −13.6% | 86% / 14% |
| 2 | Emaar | 950 | 4,158 | −7.2% | 27% / 73% |
| 3 | DAMAC Properties | 940 | 2,134 | +10.6% | 58% / 42% |
| 4 | Azizi | 849 | 759 | +0.7% | 87% / 13% |
| 5 | Sobha | 476 | 1,443 | −18.9% | 72% / 28% |
| 6 | Nakheel | 349 | 2,256 | +34.7% | 28% / 72% |
| 7 | Danube Properties | 329 | 786 | +34.8% | 78% / 22% |
| 8 | Reportage Properties | 292 | 390 | −30.8% | 91% / 9% |
| 9 | Imtiaz | 291 | 359 | −9.6% | 92% / 8% |
| 10 | Ellington Properties | 237 | 664 | — | 76% / 24% |
| 11 | Samana Developers | 201 | 232 | −4.3% | 90% / 10% |
| 12 | Al Mazaya Real Estate | 183 | 189 | — | 89% / 11% |
| 13 | Dubai Properties | 161 | 569 | −17.4% | 1% / 99% |
| 14 | Wasl | 154 | 575 | — | 85% / 15% |
| Rank | Developer | Value (AED M) | Volume | MoM Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emaar | 4,158 | 950 | +0.5% |
| 2 | Nakheel | 2,256 | 349 | +41.9% |
| 3 | DAMAC Properties | 2,134 | 940 | +24.4% |
| 4 | Sobha | 1,443 | 476 | −28.0% |
| 5 | Binghatti | 1,380 | 1,014 | +5.3% |
| 6 | Danube Properties | 786 | 329 | +43.3% |
| 7 | Azizi | 759 | 849 | +4.4% |
| 8 | Ellington Properties | 664 | 237 | — |
| 9 | H&H Development | 592 | 36 | — |
| 10 | Wasl | 575 | 154 | — |
- Binghatti86%14%
- Emaar27%73%
- DAMAC Properties58%42%
- Azizi87%13%
- Sobha72%28%
- Nakheel28%72%
- Danube Properties78%22%
- Reportage Properties91%9%
- Imtiaz92%8%
- Ellington Properties76%24%
- Samana Developers90%10%
- Al Mazaya Real Estate89%11%
- Dubai Properties1%99%
- Wasl85%15%
Reading the leaderboard. The market's primary volume is now spread across four developers within 165 deals of each other — the most balanced top tier of the year. Two business models are visible: Emaar, Nakheel and Dubai Properties sell mostly resale (72–99%) — their brands are being traded in the secondary market by owners; Binghatti, Azizi, Imtiaz, Reportage and Samana sell 86–92% first-hand. Nakheel's +41.9% value rise was driven by villas (79 sales, AED 1.68B; average AED 21.3M). H&H Development entered the value top ten on 36 premium sales (average AED 16.5M).
Rental Market
Bottom lineAbout 52,900 residential leases were registered — half new, half renewals. Prime rents are still falling about 1% a month; value communities are flat to rising. New leases are priced well above renewals, which explains why different rent indicators disagree.
- Asking rentsAsking rents react first
Prime asking rents sharply lower YoY (Downtown about −22%); listings +55% YoY vs enquiries +15% (September); asking rents ticked up slightly month-on-month in SeptemberProperty Finder (via Arabian Business)
- New leasesNew leases follow
New apartment leases AED 94/sqft vs renewals AED 72/sqftProperty Monitor contracts (B10.1)
- RenewalsRenewals react last
over 21% of renewals signed at a lower rent (under 5% in Q1); ~39% at the same rentCavendish Maxwell Q3 2026 (via Construction Week)
- All signed rentsStill shows growth
+5.5% YoYCavendish Maxwell Q3 2026 (via Construction Week)
| Source | What it measures | Latest reading | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Property Finder (via Arabian Business) | Asking rents on listings | Prime asking rents sharply lower YoY (Downtown about −22%); listings +55% YoY vs enquiries +15% (September); asking rents ticked up slightly month-on-month in September | Falling fastest |
| Property Monitor Rentals Index | Average rent on registered leases, by community | Prime −9% to −14% over six months; median of 101 communities −2.68% YoY | Falling |
| REIDIN (via GlobalPropertyGuide) | Residential rent index | About −6.8% YoY (September) | Falling |
| Cavendish Maxwell Q3 2026 (via Construction Week) | Average signed rents, all contracts | +5.5% YoY; over 21% of renewals signed at a lower rent (under 5% in Q1); ~39% at the same rent | Still positive, turning |
| Property Monitor contracts (B10.1) | New vs renewal pricing | New apartment leases AED 94/sqft vs renewals AED 72/sqft | New leases priced ~30% above renewals |
| Segment | All Contracts | MoM | New Contracts | MoM | Renewals | MoM | Avg Rent — New | Avg Rent — Renewal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apartment | 48,175 | −10.75% | 24,258 | −3.64% | 23,781 | −16.95% | AED 81.6K (94/sqft) | AED 68.6K (72/sqft) |
| Townhouse | 2,203 | −30.85% | 1,419 | −25.39% | 784 | −38.94% | AED 177.9K | AED 166.1K |
| Villa | 2,525 | −3.63% | 1,196 | +3.73% | 1,329 | −9.41% | AED 350.2K | AED 241.6K |
| Total | 52,903 | −11.5% | 26,873 | −4.8% | 25,894 | −17.5% | — | — |
- Total annual rent registered: AED 4.76B (apartments AED 3.63B, villas AED 0.74B, townhouses AED 0.38B).
- New contracts were 50.9% of leases (September, implied: 47.4%).
- Apartment classification note: 136 apartment contracts are not classified as new or renewal in the export (48,175 vs 48,039).
- Zabeel−13.74%
- Dubai Hills Estate — Apartments−13.62%
- Downtown Dubai−13.37%
- Sobha Hartland — Apartments−12.17%
- Palm Jumeirah — Apartments−12.05%
- Dubai Creek Harbour−11.81%
- Dubai Harbour−10.99%
- Dubai Marina−10.21%
- DIFC−10.14%
- Business Bay−9.65%
- Jumeirah Village Circle — Apartments−8.93%
- International City+0.27%
- Barsha Heights+0.30%
- Discovery Gardens+1.27%
- Al Khail Gate — Apartments+2.64%
- Dubai Investments Park — Apartments+3.02%
- Majan — Apartments+4.10%
| Community | Avg Rent (AED/yr) | 12-mo | 6-mo | 1-mo | September 6-mo (for comparison) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Downtown Dubai | 141,487 | −9.26% | −13.37% | −0.75% | −13.80% |
| Dubai Hills Estate — Apartments | 192,646 | −7.28% | −13.62% | −1.08% | −13.48% |
| Zabeel | 169,423 | −11.23% | −13.74% | −2.57% | — |
| Palm Jumeirah — Apartments | 264,638 | −4.22% | −12.05% | −1.17% | — |
| Sobha Hartland — Apartments | 114,818 | −9.10% | −12.17% | −1.08% | — |
| Dubai Creek Harbour | 148,280 | −5.32% | −11.81% | −1.32% | −10.83% |
| Dubai Harbour | 213,940 | −11.81% | −10.99% | −0.99% | −12.03% |
| Dubai Marina | 136,095 | −6.29% | −10.21% | −1.40% | −9.77% |
| DIFC | 183,179 | −8.07% | −10.14% | −0.79% | −10.60% |
| Business Bay | 144,643 | −5.79% | −9.65% | −0.58% | −9.46% |
| Jumeirah Village Circle — Apartments | 85,230 | −7.38% | −8.93% | −1.10% | — |
| Holding or rising: | |||||
| Majan — Apartments | 69,355 | +5.62% | +4.10% | +3.35% | — |
| Discovery Gardens | 50,661 | +3.94% | +1.27% | +0.22% | +1.40% |
| International City | 37,475 | +3.81% | +0.27% | +0.27% | — |
| Al Khail Gate — Apartments | 52,801 | +3.12% | +2.64% | +0.61% | +1.40% |
| Dubai Investments Park — Apartments | 124,976 | +1.99% | +3.02% | −0.25% | +1.34% |
| Barsha Heights | 91,663 | +0.60% | +0.30% | +1.01% | −1.29% |
Breadth across all 101 communities: 69 are below year-earlier rent levels (median −2.68%); 87 are below six months ago (median −4.68%); in October, 68 fell, 28 rose and 5 were flat (median −0.60%). The latest monthly median (−0.60%) is slower than the three-month average pace (about −0.9% a month), so rent declines are easing gradually — but they have not stopped.
| Benchmark Community | Gross Yield (Oct) | 12-Months-Ago Column |
|---|---|---|
| Downtown Dubai | 5.34% | 5.80% |
| Dubai Marina | 5.78% | 6.22% |
| Business Bay | 6.31% | 6.68% |
| Palm Jumeirah — Apartments | 5.10% | 5.23% |
| Dubai Hills Estate — Apartments | 6.15% | 6.41% |
| Dubai Creek Harbour | 5.54% | 5.73% |
| DIFC | 6.02% | 6.53% |
| Jumeirah Village Circle — Apartments | 7.22% | 7.57% |
| Jumeirah Lakes Towers | 7.02% | 7.21% |
| Dubai Hills Estate — Villas | 4.53% | 4.12% |
| Arabian Ranches | 3.94% | 4.17% |
B10.4 · Rentals Index — All 101 Tracked Communities
Average annual rent per unit with trailing changes and current average gross yield. Sorted by rent level.
| Community | Avg Rent (AED/yr) | 12-mo | 6-mo | 3-mo | 1-mo | Gross Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jumeirah Bay Island - Villas | 2,130,541 | −8.49% | −7.38% | −5.00% | −3.46% | 5.03% |
| Palm Jumeirah Fronds - Garden Homes | 1,421,518 | −4.30% | −9.70% | −7.20% | 0.00% | 2.84% |
| Jumeirah Bay Island - Apartments | 1,251,431 | −15.95% | −3.68% | +1.78% | +2.50% | 5.26% |
| Jumeirah Islands*Small sample: communities with very few transactions are flagged; their percentage moves are statistically unstable. | 845,692 | +50.19% | +19.28% | +16.06% | +15.79% | 3.58% |
| Al Barari - Apartments | 815,047 | +1.51% | −5.83% | −2.65% | −0.98% | 6.65% |
| Jumeirah Golf Estates - Villas | 726,418 | −0.06% | −1.99% | −0.88% | −1.00% | 5.27% |
| Meydan - Villas | 607,553 | −2.72% | −4.68% | −3.62% | −1.33% | 5.14% |
| Sobha Hartland - Villas | 527,220 | −6.51% | −10.08% | −4.86% | −2.86% | 5.01% |
| Mohammed Bin Rashid City Townhouses*Small sample: communities with very few transactions are flagged; their percentage moves are statistically unstable. | 503,200 | +76.48% | +58.14% | 0.00% | 0.00% | — |
| Dubai Investments Park - Villas*Small sample: communities with very few transactions are flagged; their percentage moves are statistically unstable. | 497,434 | +63.45% | +55.60% | −38.45% | −21.89% | — |
| Bluewaters Island | 489,725 | −2.18% | −6.47% | −4.74% | −2.03% | 5.10% |
| Tilal Al Ghaf | 489,216 | −1.01% | −2.17% | −0.34% | +0.85% | 4.89% |
| The Meadows - Villas | 416,466 | −3.32% | −3.24% | −2.63% | −0.49% | 3.28% |
| The Villa | 362,297 | +3.52% | −3.75% | +1.11% | +3.91% | 3.88% |
| The Lakes - Villas | 360,040 | +3.39% | −4.20% | −1.65% | −0.15% | 4.08% |
| DAMAC Hills - Villas | 357,986 | −2.66% | −5.91% | −2.57% | −0.37% | 5.20% |
| The Valley | 347,194 | −6.25% | −4.56% | −1.97% | −0.75% | 4.95% |
| Motor City - Villas | 337,213 | −4.14% | −6.62% | −6.04% | −0.33% | 4.36% |
| Jumeirah Park | 336,946 | −1.88% | −3.99% | −0.74% | +0.86% | 3.75% |
| Dubai Science Park (DuBiotech) - Villas | 325,424 | −4.58% | −5.31% | −3.76% | −0.60% | 4.58% |
| Meydan - Apartments | 322,756 | −5.67% | −9.59% | −3.97% | −0.56% | 5.22% |
| Dubai Sports City - Villas | 316,390 | −4.43% | +1.40% | −0.42% | −0.32% | 3.56% |
| Mudon | 302,962 | −2.61% | −1.47% | −0.99% | +0.40% | 5.50% |
| Al Furjan - Apartments*Level anomaly — use % changes only | 292,204 | −2.68% | −7.31% | −5.22% | −2.23% | 7.01% |
| Arabian Ranches 2 | 292,030 | −2.99% | −5.48% | −3.18% | −0.76% | 4.82% |
| Dubai Hills Estate - Villas | 288,741 | −3.74% | −10.57% | −3.82% | +0.30% | 4.53% |
| The Sustainable City - Villas | 277,796 | −2.04% | −4.11% | −3.03% | 0.00% | 5.66% |
| Palm Jumeirah - Apartments | 264,638 | −4.22% | −12.05% | −5.01% | −1.17% | 5.10% |
| Al Furjan - Villas | 263,574 | −4.34% | −1.97% | −2.17% | −0.84% | 4.92% |
| City Walk | 260,878 | +5.16% | −9.53% | −1.37% | −0.22% | 5.37% |
| Arabian Ranches 3 | 260,109 | −8.18% | −12.82% | −5.67% | −1.32% | 4.77% |
| Living Legends - Villas | 241,563 | −0.92% | +8.38% | +11.61% | +2.32% | 4.35% |
| Dubai Water Canal - Apartments | 239,422 | +2.67% | −3.47% | −1.95% | −0.88% | 4.73% |
| Arabian Ranches | 238,478 | −2.82% | −3.73% | −2.36% | −1.43% | 3.94% |
| Falcon City of Wonders | 235,750 | +3.37% | −6.26% | +0.33% | −1.91% | 4.54% |
| Wasl Gate - Villas | 231,165 | +3.13% | +1.44% | −0.30% | −0.21% | 6.13% |
| Dubai Festival City | 230,916 | +5.82% | −1.37% | +3.63% | +0.53% | 7.16% |
| Jumeirah Village Circle - Villas | 224,250 | −3.59% | −2.98% | −3.10% | −1.31% | 5.53% |
| Dubai Silicon Oasis - Villas | 222,414 | +5.12% | +4.62% | −1.66% | 0.00% | 3.99% |
| Dubai Harbour | 213,940 | −11.81% | −10.99% | −4.03% | −0.99% | 5.19% |
| Jumeirah Heights - Apartments | 207,700 | −6.08% | −2.24% | −0.39% | +0.60% | 4.87% |
| DAMAC Lagoons - Villas | 203,539 | −30.53% | −17.37% | −7.35% | −2.45% | 5.73% |
| Nad Al Sheba - Villas | 200,096 | −16.87% | −17.13% | −10.92% | +0.35% | 4.30% |
| Dubai South Residential District - Villas | 198,195 | −1.24% | −0.83% | −1.38% | −0.55% | 4.44% |
| The Springs - Villas | 197,182 | +0.37% | −3.76% | −1.08% | +0.37% | 4.14% |
| The Hills | 196,282 | −4.32% | −7.89% | −4.74% | 0.00% | 5.22% |
| Jumeirah Village Triangle - Villas | 195,889 | −3.18% | −7.70% | −3.07% | −0.46% | 3.34% |
| Dubai Hills Estate - Apartments | 192,646 | −7.28% | −13.62% | −6.01% | −1.08% | 6.15% |
| DIFC | 183,179 | −8.07% | −10.14% | −4.89% | −0.79% | 6.02% |
| Madinat Jumeirah Living - Apartments | 173,547 | −8.69% | −13.46% | −5.29% | −1.68% | 5.68% |
| Villanova - Villas | 172,452 | −5.41% | −4.22% | −1.94% | −0.66% | 5.02% |
| DAMAC Hills 2 - Apartments*Level anomaly — use % changes only | 171,366 | −0.88% | −7.98% | −3.79% | −1.37% | 8.17% |
| Zabeel | 169,423 | −11.23% | −13.74% | −6.55% | −2.57% | 6.28% |
| Reem Townhouses | 167,417 | −1.25% | −1.98% | −0.75% | −0.26% | 4.77% |
| Mohammed Bin Rashid City - Apartments | 159,983 | −7.43% | −9.45% | −4.60% | +1.01% | — |
| Jumeirah Golf Estates - Apartments | 156,618 | −6.87% | −7.10% | −2.73% | −0.61% | 6.21% |
| Jumeirah Beach Residence | 150,672 | −8.35% | −9.89% | −4.07% | −1.05% | 5.95% |
| Town Square - Apartments | 148,974 | −1.39% | −3.58% | −0.87% | +0.10% | 7.18% |
| Dubai Creek Harbour | 148,280 | −5.32% | −11.81% | −5.86% | −1.32% | 5.54% |
| Al Kifaf | 146,475 | −5.10% | −3.94% | −2.15% | −3.50% | — |
| Serena | 146,095 | −3.49% | −4.56% | −2.17% | −0.82% | 4.55% |
| Business Bay | 144,643 | −5.79% | −9.65% | −3.39% | −0.58% | 6.31% |
| Al Habtoor City | 143,412 | −5.56% | −8.17% | −3.70% | −1.29% | 5.64% |
| Town Square Townhouses | 141,937 | −1.09% | −1.56% | −0.36% | +0.74% | 5.07% |
| Downtown Dubai | 141,487 | −9.26% | −13.37% | −5.36% | −0.75% | 5.34% |
| The Views - Apartments | 141,178 | −3.26% | −6.44% | −4.21% | −1.01% | 5.77% |
| Dubai Marina | 136,095 | −6.29% | −10.21% | −4.59% | −1.40% | 5.78% |
| Living Legends - Apartments | 135,674 | +10.41% | −4.40% | −3.02% | −1.79% | 7.54% |
| Dubai Maritime City | 134,773 | −2.88% | −10.41% | −5.73% | −2.94% | 6.26% |
| Dubai Investments Park - Apartments | 124,976 | +1.99% | +3.02% | −0.61% | −0.25% | 9.73% |
| Jumeirah Lakes Towers | 122,027 | −4.92% | −7.16% | −3.36% | −0.84% | 7.02% |
| Community name blank in source*The community name is blank in the source table; the figures are shown as published. | 120,571 | −1.60% | −3.00% | −2.35% | −0.94% | 7.08% |
| DAMAC Hills - Apartments | 118,707 | −4.98% | −7.28% | −3.70% | −0.86% | 7.38% |
| Sobha Hartland - Apartments | 114,818 | −9.10% | −12.17% | −5.57% | −1.08% | 6.16% |
| The Greens - Apartments | 113,263 | −3.15% | −6.75% | −3.00% | −0.32% | 6.08% |
| Motor City - Apartments | 100,575 | +3.59% | −1.87% | −0.67% | +0.44% | 7.44% |
| DAMAC Hills 2 - Villas | 100,386 | −4.20% | −7.77% | −4.81% | −1.00% | 5.80% |
| Rukan - Villas | 100,193 | −3.68% | −5.99% | −3.86% | −1.79% | 6.88% |
| Barsha Heights | 91,663 | +0.60% | +0.30% | +2.88% | +1.01% | 5.88% |
| Jumeirah Village Triangle - Apartments | 87,400 | +0.36% | −10.75% | −1.52% | +2.03% | 7.16% |
| Jumeirah Village Circle - Apartments | 85,230 | −7.38% | −8.93% | −4.08% | −1.10% | 7.22% |
| Dubai Healthcare City 2 - Apartments | 83,633 | −1.86% | −8.30% | −2.17% | −1.38% | 5.95% |
| Remraam | 78,864 | +3.24% | −4.30% | −2.52% | −0.46% | 7.94% |
| Al Khail Heights | 74,217 | +8.63% | −6.99% | −4.53% | −0.88% | 7.78% |
| Wasl Gate - Apartments | 73,988 | −1.65% | −5.54% | −2.45% | −0.67% | 7.29% |
| Majan - Apartments | 69,355 | +5.62% | +4.10% | +4.34% | +3.35% | 5.67% |
| Al Barsha - Apartments | 68,626 | +0.21% | −3.40% | −1.30% | +0.66% | 6.31% |
| Dubai Sports City - Apartments | 67,320 | +1.55% | −4.77% | −2.76% | −0.43% | 7.97% |
| Dubai Studio City | 67,123 | −1.48% | −3.73% | +0.77% | +1.20% | 7.47% |
| Dubai Silicon Oasis - Apartments | 61,056 | +1.17% | −4.65% | −1.16% | +0.22% | 7.39% |
| Rukan - Apartments | 60,519 | −2.61% | −3.79% | −4.53% | −0.98% | 8.54% |
| Liwan | 60,391 | +3.15% | +0.65% | −1.75% | −0.26% | 7.52% |
| Dubai Production City | 58,930 | +2.42% | −1.92% | −1.17% | +0.40% | 8.68% |
| Arjan | 58,792 | +2.12% | −6.83% | −3.96% | −0.74% | 6.44% |
| Community name blank in source*The community name is blank in the source table; the figures are shown as published. | 58,075 | +0.86% | −4.33% | −3.13% | −0.86% | 7.08% |
| Al Khail Gate - Apartments | 52,801 | +3.12% | +2.64% | +2.16% | +0.61% | — |
| Dubai Residence Complex | 52,188 | +1.30% | −2.03% | −0.77% | +0.51% | 7.78% |
| Discovery Gardens | 50,661 | +3.94% | +1.27% | +0.57% | +0.22% | 7.86% |
| Al Jaddaf - Apartments | 47,144 | −2.85% | −1.03% | −1.03% | −0.62% | 3.88% |
| International City | 37,475 | +3.81% | +0.27% | +0.56% | +0.27% | 8.87% |
| Jaddaf Waterfront - Apartments | n/a | −5.68% | −7.76% | +0.73% | +0.94% | 4.17% |
B10.5 · Gross Rental Yields
Median gross yield across 96 communities: 5.65% (the same communities' reading in the 12-months-ago column: 5.81%). Gross yields are before service charges, vacancy and costs; net yields are typically 1–2 percentage points lower (general market guidance, varies by building).
| Highest Gross Yields | Yield |
|---|---|
| Dubai Investments Park — Apartments | 9.73% |
| International City | 8.87% |
| Dubai Production City | 8.68% |
| Rukan — Apartments | 8.54% |
| DAMAC Hills 2 — Apartments | 8.17% |
| Dubai Sports City — Apartments | 7.97% |
| Remraam | 7.94% |
| Discovery Gardens | 7.86% |
| Al Khail Heights | 7.78% |
| Dubai Residence Complex | 7.78% |
| Lowest Gross Yields | Yield |
|---|---|
| Palm Jumeirah Fronds — Garden Homes | 2.84% |
| The Meadows — Villas | 3.28% |
| Jumeirah Village Triangle — Villas | 3.34% |
| Dubai Sports City — Villas | 3.56% |
| Jumeirah Islands | 3.58% |
| Jumeirah Park | 3.75% |
| Al Jaddaf — Apartments | 3.88% |
| The Villa | 3.88% |
| Benchmark Community | Gross Yield (Oct) | 12-Months-Ago Column |
|---|---|---|
| Downtown Dubai | 5.34% | 5.80% |
| Dubai Marina | 5.78% | 6.22% |
| Business Bay | 6.31% | 6.68% |
| Palm Jumeirah — Apartments | 5.10% | 5.23% |
| Dubai Hills Estate — Apartments | 6.15% | 6.41% |
| Dubai Creek Harbour | 5.54% | 5.73% |
| DIFC | 6.02% | 6.53% |
| Jumeirah Village Circle — Apartments | 7.22% | 7.57% |
| Jumeirah Lakes Towers | 7.02% | 7.21% |
| Dubai Hills Estate — Villas | 4.53% | 4.12% |
| Arabian Ranches | 3.94% | 4.17% |
Yield read: Rents have fallen faster than prices over the past year, so gross yields have compressed in prime districts (Downtown 5.80% → 5.34%; Dubai Marina 6.22% → 5.78%; DIFC 6.53% → 6.02%). Value apartment communities still offer 7.5–9.7% gross. Villa enclaves yield 3–4.5% — they are capital-growth and lifestyle assets, not income assets.
B10.6 · Why Rent Indicators Disagree — Reconciliation
| Source | What it measures | Latest reading | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Property Finder (via Arabian Business) | Asking rents on listings | Prime asking rents sharply lower YoY (Downtown about −22%); listings +55% YoY vs enquiries +15% (September); asking rents ticked up slightly month-on-month in September | Falling fastest |
| Property Monitor Rentals Index | Average rent on registered leases, by community | Prime −9% to −14% over six months; median of 101 communities −2.68% YoY | Falling |
| REIDIN (via GlobalPropertyGuide) | Residential rent index | About −6.8% YoY (September) | Falling |
| Cavendish Maxwell Q3 2026 (via Construction Week) | Average signed rents, all contracts | +5.5% YoY; over 21% of renewals signed at a lower rent (under 5% in Q1); ~39% at the same rent | Still positive, turning |
| Property Monitor contracts (B10.1) | New vs renewal pricing | New apartment leases AED 94/sqft vs renewals AED 72/sqft | New leases priced ~30% above renewals |
The reconciliation. These sources measure different things and move at different speeds. Asking rents react first (landlords re-list at lower prices). New leases follow. Renewals react last, because sitting tenants on older leases were paying below-market rents and renewal increases are governed by the RERA index. An "average of all signed rents" therefore still shows growth while asking rents in prime areas are falling by double digits. All sources agree on direction: rent growth has ended in prime and mid-market districts and the adjustment is still working through renewals. Caution: the new-versus-renewal price gap is partly a mix effect (different buildings and unit types), not purely a like-for-like premium.
Commercial Real Estate
Bottom lineOffice demand remains firm; new offices sell at a ~23% premium to resale; commercial land was the month's largest value line.
| Segment | All — Vol / Value | MoM Vol | Initial Sale — Vol / Value (AED/sqft) | Resale — Vol / Value (AED/sqft) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Office | 424 / AED 1,845.6M | +2.42% | 290 / AED 1,365.6M (3,242) | 134 / AED 480.0M (2,631) |
| Retail | 114 / AED 417.4M | −0.87% | 84 / AED 332.1M (3,189) | 30 / AED 85.3M (2,714) |
| Hotel Apartment | 114 / AED 258.7M | −43.0% | 48 / AED 72.2M (2,337) | 66 / AED 186.4M (2,998) |
| Hotel Room | 65 / AED 60.8M | +51.2% | 7 / AED 7.0M | 58 / AED 53.8M |
| Whole Building | 16 / AED 769.0M | from 1 | 3 / AED 15.7M | 13 / AED 753.4M |
| Land (commercial) | 336 / AED 3,979.7M | +143.5% | 276 / AED 3,182.6M | 60 / AED 797.2M |
| Industrial / Labour camp | 2 / AED 50.1M | — | — | — |
| Total | 1,071 / AED 7,381.3M |
| Segment | All Contracts | MoM | New Contracts | Renewals | Avg AED/sqft |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Office | 19,437 | +1.97% | 16,449 (+5.48%) | 2,988 (−13.79%) | 96 (new 90; renewal 105) |
| Retail | 3,536 | −20.14% | 1,208 | 2,328 | 149 |
| Labour Camp | 4,395 | −29.78% | 2,196 | 2,199 | 151 |
| Industrial | 997 | −27.12% | 220 | 777 | — |
| Hotel Apartment | 501 | −36.34% | 410 | 91 | — |
| Villa Complex | 298 | −13.12% | 100 | 198 | — |
| Other (clinic, education, gym, hospital, land, whole building) | 54 | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 29,218 |
B11.3 · Commercial Read
- Office leasing grew while most other leasing fell: 16,449 new office contracts (+5.48%) — business formation remains a steady source of demand, and indirectly of residential tenants.
- New offices command a premium: off-plan/first-hand offices traded at AED 3,242/sqft versus AED 2,631/sqft for resale (+23%), signalling continued appetite for new Grade-A stock.
- Renewal offices are priced above new leases (AED 105 vs 90/sqft) — the opposite of residential. This is consistent with established, well-located office stock being tightly held (inference; mix effects apply) Inference.
- Whole buildings (16; AED 769M) and commercial land (336; AED 3.98B) show institutional and developer capital still being deployed despite the regional backdrop.
Supply — The Handover Wave
Bottom lineDubai is delivering more new homes than at any time in over a decade, while new project launches have slowed sharply. That combination is what is pushing rents down and buyers toward finished homes.
| Measure | Units | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Delivered, January–September | ~38,000 | Recorded (Cavendish Maxwell) |
| Further scheduled to year-end | ~24,000 | Scheduled, not a forecast |
| Full-year 2026 | 48,000–52,000 | Elite Merit estimate |
| 2025 full-year | ~40,000 | Recorded (Cavendish Maxwell) |
| Indicator | Reading | Source |
|---|---|---|
| New residential units delivered, January–September 2026 | ~38,000 (+41% vs same period 2025) | Cavendish Maxwell (via Construction Week) |
| Further units scheduled to year-end | ~24,000 (scheduled, not a forecast of completion) | Cavendish Maxwell (via Construction Week) |
| 2025 full-year deliveries | ~40,000 — 2026 on track to exceed | Cavendish Maxwell (via Construction Week) |
| New project launches, Q3 2026 | Down more than 70% YoY | Cavendish Maxwell (via Construction Week) |
| Share of 2026 initial off-plan sales from projects launched in 2026 | ~17% (January–September) | Cavendish Maxwell (via Construction Week) |
| Historic delivery rate vs schedule | Q1 2026: ~43% of scheduled units delivered | Secondary analysis of Property Monitor data — lower confidence |
Elite Merit estimate (not a published figure): if 40–60% of the ~24,000 scheduled Q4 units complete — in line with recent delivery rates — full-year 2026 deliveries would land at roughly 48,000–52,000 units, the highest in more than a decade on this basis.
Why this matters. Each completed unit either becomes a rental listing or a resale listing. That is the mechanism behind three of this report's main findings: prime rents −9% to −14% over six months (B10), resale share rising to 37.9% (B3), and high-supply apartment districts carrying the price correction (B6). Meanwhile, the sharp drop in new launches means the 2028–2029 pipeline is being cut now — a medium-term support for prices once the current wave is absorbed (inference) Inference.
The Macro and Regional Backdrop
Status as of 5 November 2026.
US Federal Reserve
+0.25pp on 16 September to 3.75–4.00%; held on 28 October; two officials favoured a further rise
Rate direction now up, not down; December meeting is the next test
Federal Reserve
UAE Central Bank Base Rate
3.65% → 3.90% on 17 September; held 28 October
Variable mortgage costs up ~AED 210/month per AED 1.5M borrowed
CBUAE via Gulf News
Mortgage activity
4,633 registrations in October (series high); record AED 21.8B lent in Q3
Rate rise has not stopped end-user borrowing
DLD; Cavendish Maxwell
Population
~4.81 million (September), up ~227,000 since January
Continued household formation supports rental absorption
Dubai Data and Statistics Establishment via Gulf News
Air connectivity
UAE airport seat capacity in October 23% above June; major European carriers returning
Visitor and relocation flows recovering
Gulf News
Regional conflict
Qatar-mediated talks on a draft agreement; US blockade of Iranian ports continues; Hormuz shipping severely restricted; oil above pre-war levels
The main source of overseas-investor hesitation; the largest swing factor for Q4
CFR; Britannica; Gulf News
Q3 2026 sales vs Q3 2025
Residential value −47%, volume −38% (Cavendish Maxwell); Savills: ~34,500 transactions, about 4% below Q2
Sharp annual decline against a record base; sequentially near-stable
Cavendish Maxwell; Savills
Cavendish Maxwell and Savills describe the same quarter differently — one emphasises the steep fall from the 2025 peak, the other the stability versus Q2. Both are correct; they use different comparison periods. This report uses both lenses.
Part C
Progression, Outlook and Conclusions
Eight-Month Progression (March–October 2026)
| Month | Avg Cash Ticket | Mortgage Share of Sales (Cash + Mortgage) |
|---|---|---|
| March | AED 3.22M | 21.5% |
| April | AED 3.44M | 22.5% |
| May | AED 2.81M | 19.8% |
| June | AED 2.37M | 21.9% |
| July | AED 2.50M | 24.2% |
| August | AED 2.40M | 24.3% |
| September | AED 2.59M | 27.2% |
| October | AED 2.92M (2.62M ex-outliers) | 27.9% |
- Cash volume11,96813,233 → 11,968, March → October
- Mortgage share27.9%19.8% → 27.9%, five consecutive gains
- PMDPI YoY−1.98%+9.68% → −1.98%, series break for September–October
- Ready / resale share37.9%Title Deed 24.5% → 30.7%, break, resale 35.4% (implied) → 37.9%
- Leasing52,903Previous series 32,903 → 50,502, break, new series ~59,800 (implied) → 52,903
- Developer leader ratio1.07×4.0× → 1.07×
| Month | Cash Vol | Cash Value | Mortgage Vol | Mortgage Value | Gift Vol | Gift Value | Combined Vol | Combined Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March | 13,233 | AED 42.57B | 3,631 | AED 10.87B | 452 | AED 2.40B | 17,316 | AED 55.84B |
| April | 14,064 | AED 48.34B | 4,080 | AED 14.52B | 703 | AED 6.35B | 18,847 | AED 69.21B |
| May | 10,475 | AED 29.43B | 2,586 | AED 17.51B | 737 | AED 4.80B | 13,798 | AED 51.74B |
| June | 13,758 | AED 32.63B | 3,861 | AED 10.54B | 1,012 | AED 4.87B | 18,631 | AED 48.04B |
| July | 13,921 | AED 34.82B | 4,454 | AED 17.08B | 774 | AED 3.76B | 19,149 | AED 55.66B |
| August | 11,592 | AED 27.86B | 3,722 | AED 14.32B | 620 | AED 3.97B | 15,934 | AED 46.15B |
| September | 11,424 | AED 29.61B | 4,258 | AED 16.77B | 796 | AED 4.33B | 16,478 | AED 50.71B |
| October | 11,968 | AED 34.98B | 4,633 | AED 13.26B | 1,033 | AED 5.80B | 17,634 | AED 54.04B |
| 8-month total | 100,435 | AED 280.24B | 31,225 | AED 114.87B | 6,127 | AED 36.28B | 137,787 | AED 431.39B |
| Monthly average | 12,554 | AED 35.03B | 3,903 | AED 14.36B | 766 | AED 4.53B | 17,223 | AED 53.92B |
October against the eight-month average: cash volume −4.7%; cash value in line; mortgage volume +18.7%; combined volume +2.4%; combined value in line.
| Month | Avg Cash Ticket | Mortgage Share of Sales (Cash + Mortgage) |
|---|---|---|
| March | AED 3.22M | 21.5% |
| April | AED 3.44M | 22.5% |
| May | AED 2.81M | 19.8% |
| June | AED 2.37M | 21.9% |
| July | AED 2.50M | 24.2% |
| August | AED 2.40M | 24.3% |
| September | AED 2.59M | 27.2% |
| October | AED 2.92M (2.62M ex-outliers) | 27.9% |
Five consecutive monthly gains in the mortgage share since May (19.8% → 27.9%). This is the single most consistent trend in our series: the market is becoming more financed, more end-user and less speculative every month — and the September rate rise did not interrupt it.
| Month | PMDPI | MoM | YoY | Other gauges |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2026 | 235.03 | +0.59% | +9.68% | — |
| Apr 2026 | 233.24 | −0.76% | +6.74% | — |
| May 2026 | 231.51 | −0.74% | +4.78% | — |
| Jun 2026 | 228.87 | −1.14% | +1.84% | — |
| Jul 2026 | 228.48 | −0.17% | +0.67% | — |
| Aug 2026 | 227.81 | −0.29% | −1.98% | PM citywide avg AED 1,636/sqft (−1.7% YoY) |
| Sep 2026 | Not available in export | — | — | Cavendish Maxwell AED 1,644/sqft (−2.2% YoY; +0.3% QoQ); REIDIN −1.27% YoY |
| Oct 2026 | — (one-month lag) | — | — | PM community median −0.31% MoM; +0.89% YoY |
Reading the series. The annual growth rate fell by roughly 2 percentage points a month from March to August and crossed zero in August. The monthly declines have since shrunk to a shallow range, and the September and October evidence from other gauges is consistent with a flattening, not an acceleration, of the correction.
| Month | Title Deed (Ready) Share — previous series | Resale Share — new series |
|---|---|---|
| May | 24.5% | — |
| June | 25.3% | — |
| July | 28.1% | — |
| August | 28.6% | — |
| September | 30.7% | 35.4% (implied) |
| October | Series discontinued | 37.9% |
| Month | Contracts (previous series) | Contracts (new series, incl. renewals) |
|---|---|---|
| May | 32,903 | — |
| June | 35,920 | — |
| July | 44,421 | — |
| August | 47,575 | — |
| September | 50,502 | ~59,800 (implied) |
| October | — | 52,903 (−11.5%) |
| Measure | September | October |
|---|---|---|
| Best-to-worst 12-month spread (Sales Index) | ~55pp | ~57pp |
| Communities negative YoY | 32 of 95 | 44 of 96 |
| Communities negative MoM | 65 of 95 | 56 of 96 |
| Prime apartment rents, 6-month change | −10% to −14% | −9% to −14% |
C1.7 · Eight-Month Synthesis
- 1
The market has held a stable liquidity floor. Combined monthly volume has stayed between ~13,800 and ~19,100 deals all year; October (17,634) sits slightly above the eight-month average.
- 2
Financing is the structural engine. Mortgage share up five months running; October mortgage volume the highest of the series despite a rate rise.
- 3
The price correction has decelerated. From a ~2-point-a-month slide in the annual growth rate (March–August) to a near-flat monthly picture in September–October.
- 4
Finished homes keep gaining share. Six consecutive months of rotation from off-plan toward ready and resale stock.
- 5
Supply is being absorbed through rents. Prime rents are down 9–14% in six months; gross yields in prime districts have compressed by up to ~0.5 points over the year.
- 6
The affordable off-plan surge has fully unwound and developer leadership is now balanced (top four within 165 deals).
- 7
Dispersion is the defining feature. A ~57-point spread between best and worst communities; nearly half the index (44 of 96) is negative year-on-year, while 16 communities — mostly scarcity villas and value apartment districts — are still up 10% or more.
- 8
The regional conflict has been a heavier weight than our July–September editions acknowledged (see A6 and C2).
Forecast Accuracy Scorecard — Testing the September Projections
We test every projection we publish. Verdicts: ACCURATE (outcome within the projected range), ON TRACK (multi-month projection moving as expected), PARTIALLY (mixed outcome), NOT SCOREABLE (data unavailable or methodology changed), MISSED (outcome outside range).
- September projection
October cash volume 11,500–12,500
October actual11,968
11,50012,50011,968ACCURATE - September projection
Cash-sale value AED 30–36B/month
October actualAED 34.98B (AED 31.24B ex-outliers)
AED 30BAED 36BAED 34.98BACCURATE - September projection
Mortgage volume 4,000–4,800/month
October actual4,633
4,0004,8004,633ACCURATE - September projection
PMDPI 224–228 by December; monthly −0.2% to −0.4%
October actualSeptember PMDPI not available in export
NOT SCOREABLEother gauges (Cavendish +0.3% QoQ; PM median −0.31% MoM) are consistent with a shallow grind
- September projection
PMDPI YoY −3% to −5% by December
October actualLatest readings −1.98% (Aug PMDPI), −2.2% (Cavendish, Sep)
ON TRACKat the milder end; we narrow the range (C3)
- September projection
Title Deed share 31–34%
October actualSeries discontinued; resale share (new series) rose to 37.9%
NOT SCOREABLEdirection confirmed
- September projection
Prime rents a further −3% to −6% by December
October actualOctober prime monthly moves −0.6% to −1.4%
ON TRACKat the milder end
- September projection
Leasing 47,000–53,000/month
October actual52,903 on the new basis (incl. renewals)
NOT SCOREABLEmethodology change
- September projection
Prime scarcity villas flat to +3% in Q4
October actualJGE villas +2.93%; Palm Garden Homes −0.76%; JVT villas −1.65%; Jumeirah Islands −3.72% (October)
PARTIALLY - September projection
Established villa districts −2% to 0% in Q4
October actualArabian Ranches −0.29%; Dubai Hills villas −4.03%; The Meadows −4.08% (October alone)
PARTIALLYweaker than projected in two of three
- September projection
Regional conflict treated as a receding background risk (July–September editions)
October actualInterim truce collapsed in July; blockade and shipping restrictions continue; Cavendish Maxwell cites tensions as weighing on investor confidence
MISSED — CORRECTED
Net: three accurate, two on track, two partial, three not scoreable, one missed. The headline volume, value and mortgage projections were correct. The important miss is qualitative: we under-weighted the regional conflict. It is now treated as the largest single swing factor in the outlook below, with its own scenario.
Outlook — November to December 2026, and an Early View of 2027
Nature of this section. Elite Merit's forward view, built from Parts A–B, Dubai's seasonal patterns and published research. These are scenario-based estimates with stated assumptions and subjective probabilities — not predictions of certainty. They will be tested in the November edition.
C3.2 · Scenario Matrix
| Scenario | Probability | Monthly Cash Volume (Nov–Dec) | Prices (monthly) | Key Triggers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady, Selective Season (Base) | ~50% | 11,500–13,500 | −0.5% to +0.2% | Talks continue; rates on hold; handovers as scheduled |
| Relief Rally (Upside) | ~20% | Above 13,500 by December | 0% to +0.5% | Signed agreement reopening Hormuz and lifting the blockade; return of overseas investors; Fed hold |
| Risk-Off (Downside) | ~30% | 10,000–11,500 | −0.5% to −1.0% | Collapse of talks or renewed escalation; and/or a December Fed hike followed by CBUAE |
the September matrix assigned 55% / 30% / 15% to a "late, value-led recovery", a "prolonged standoff" and a "sharp seasonal rebound". We have re-framed the scenarios around the regional conflict — the factor we under-weighted — and lowered the base case to 50%. The downside probability is unchanged at 30%, but its trigger is now explicitly geopolitical and monetary rather than seller pricing.
C3.1 · Base Case — "Steady, Selective Season" (≈50% probability)
Assumptions: regional talks continue without a final agreement and without major escalation; the Fed and CBUAE hold in December; handovers continue at recent rates.
| Metric | October Actual | November–December Projection Projection | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monthly cash-sale volume | 11,968 | 11,500–13,500 lowered from 12,500–14,500 | Seasonal year-end support, offset by regional uncertainty and higher rates |
| Monthly cash-sale value | AED 34.98B | AED 30–36B | Larger tickets and villa/plot launches sustain value |
| Mortgage registrations | 4,633 | 4,300–5,000/month | End-user demand and handover financing |
| Citywide prices, monthly | ~flat to −0.3% | −0.5% to +0.2% | Correction flattening |
| Citywide prices, YoY by December | −2% to −2.2% | −2% to −4% narrowed from −3% to −5% | Strong late-2025 base keeps annual figures negative |
| Resale share of residential sales | 37.9% | 37–41% | Handovers keep feeding the secondary market |
| Prime apartment rents | ~−1%/month | Cumulative October–December −2% to −4% | Supply absorption continues, pace easing |
| Residential leases (new basis) | 52,903 | 48,000–56,000/month | Post-September normalisation |
C3.3 · Segment Outlook (to December) Projection
Prime ready apartments (Downtown, Marina, Palm, Business Bay, City Walk)
−2% to +2%Holding within a few percent of a year ago; recovery needs regional clarity.
High-supply mid-market apartments (JVC, Arjan, Dubailand, Dubai South, Al Furjan)
−2% to −5%The handover wave lands here first; expect incentives and resale discounts.
Scarcity villas and lifestyle enclaves (JGE, JVT villas, Palm Garden Homes, Jumeirah Park)
flat to +3%Limited supply; buyers are end-users with equity.
Larger established villa districts (Dubai Hills villas, The Meadows, Arabian Ranches)
−4% to 0%(widened from −2% to 0%). October weakness suggests price discovery is continuing.
Plot-based villa launches (Tilal Binghatti, Palm Jebel Ali)
strong launch absorption; will show up as land in DLD data.
Affordable off-plan (sub-AED 1M)
volume continues to normalise; the highest resale-price risk as 2024–25 launches complete.
Rents
prime −1% to −1.5% a month at most; value communities flat to +1%.
C3.4 · An Early View of 2027 Low confidence
- Supply stays heavy. Published pipeline data shows scheduled 2027 deliveries above 2026's, though scheduled figures historically overstate actual completions by a wide margin. Rents in high-supply corridors are likely to remain under pressure through at least H1 2027.
- The launch slowdown is a medium-term support. With Q3 launches down more than 70%, the 2028–2029 pipeline is shrinking — the setting for a firmer market once the current wave is absorbed.
- Rates and the region set the tempo. A settled regional situation and a pause in rate rises would allow the 2026 correction to bottom in 2027; renewed escalation or further hikes would extend it.
- Our working view: 2027 is more likely to be a year of stabilisation and selective recovery than of either a renewed boom or a deep fall. This is an early, low-confidence assessment and will be revisited each month.
C3.5 · Leading Indicators (ranked)
- 1
Regional diplomacy — a signed agreement, or a breakdown, is the largest single swing factor.
- 2
November–December cash volume — above 13,500 signals the Relief Rally; below 11,500 signals Risk-Off.
- 3
December Fed decision — a further hike would pass straight through to UAE mortgage costs.
- 4
Monthly price gauges — monthly declines steeper than −0.5% would signal a renewed slide.
- 5
Prime rental index — monthly declines steeper than −2% would signal stress; below −0.5% signals stabilisation.
- 6
Handovers versus schedule — the dominant driver of rents and resale supply into 2027.
- 7
Mortgage share — a break below 25% would mean end-user demand is weakening.
- 8
Resale share — above 40% confirms the rotation is still accelerating.
Risk Signals
C4.1 · High Priority
- High
Regional escalation risk. Talks are ongoing, but the blockade continues and Hormuz shipping remains restricted. A breakdown would hit overseas-buyer demand first and hardest.
- High
Rates now moving up. The first Fed and CBUAE hikes in three years; two Fed officials favoured another rise. A December hike would add a further ~AED 210/month per AED 1.5M of variable-rate borrowing.
- High
Annual price comparisons will deteriorate. Even with flat monthly prices, year-on-year figures are likely to stay negative through year-end and may dominate headlines.
- High
The handover wave. ~24,000 units scheduled to year-end, on top of ~38,000 already delivered — sustained pressure on rents and resale prices in high-supply districts.
- High
Rental income at risk for leveraged landlords. Prime gross yields have compressed by up to ~0.5 points in a year; over 21% of Q3 renewals were at lower rents.
C4.2 · Moderate Priority
- Moderate
Headline value distortion. 42 registrations carried 10.7% of October cash value; land reached 37.6% of cash value. Use volume and ex-outlier tickets for clean reads.
- Moderate
Weakness spreading into established villa districts — Dubai Hills villas −12.46% YoY; The Meadows, Jumeirah Islands and Sobha Hartland villas fell in October.
- Moderate
Affordable off-plan resale exposure as 2024–25 launches complete.
- Moderate
Data-series breaks. New Property Monitor formats (resale share, rentals, commercial) limit like-for-like comparison with prior months for one cycle.
- Moderate
Thin-sample volatility in Jumeirah Bay Island, Jumeirah Islands, MBR City townhouses and DIP villas.
C4.3 · Positive Signals
- Positive
Mortgages at a series high (4,633) and mortgage share up five months running — durable end-user demand.
- Positive
Volume up despite the headwinds — combined deals +7.0% MoM; cash volume above the September projection floor.
- Positive
Monthly price declines narrowing — fewer communities falling, and by less (median −0.31% vs −0.59%).
- Positive
Ready-apartment demand at an eight-month high (2,988 per Arabian Business; 2,970 resale apartments per Property Monitor).
- Positive
Population growth continues (~4.81 million; +227,000 since January).
- Positive
Launches down sharply — the future pipeline is self-correcting.
- Positive
Developer concentration risk has dissipated — four developers within 165 deals at the top.
Key Conclusions
- 1
October 2026 = Steady volume, financed demand, flat prices. 17,634 registered deals (+7.0%), AED 54.04B; cash volume 11,968 (+4.8%; +1.4% per day); mortgages 4,633, the highest of our series.
- 2
The +18% cash-value jump is mostly outliers. Excluding 42 registrations above AED 50M each, the average ticket was AED 2.62M — essentially September's AED 2.59M.
- 3
Prices have flattened. Citywide gauges sit 1–3% below a year ago; the community median moved −0.31% in October versus −0.59% in September. Annual comparisons will keep weakening on base effects.
- 4
The rotation to finished homes continues. Resale reached 37.9% of residential sales; ready-apartment sales hit their highest level since February; resale and initial apartment prices per sqft have converged to within 2.4%.
- 5
The rate rise did not stop buyers who borrow. The mortgage share rose for a fifth consecutive month to 27.9%.
- 6
Rents are the pressure valve. Prime rents −9% to −14% over six months; value communities flat to rising; new leases priced well above renewals — which is why rent indicators disagree.
- 7
Villas have split. Scarcity enclaves lead the city over twelve months; larger established villa districts are now negative.
- 8
Developers are pivoting to ground-level family product. Tilal Binghatti (532 registrations, AED 1.68B) was the month's largest project.
- 9
We under-weighted the regional conflict in July–September. It is now the central variable in our outlook.
- 10
Net assessment: Dubai is in a mild, decelerating correction inside a still-liquid market — supported by population growth, financed end-user demand and a shrinking future pipeline, and pressured by rates, regional risk and a record handover wave. Outcomes are now determined by location, product and price discipline far more than by market timing.
Monitoring Priorities (November Edition)
- 1
Regional talks — agreement, extension or breakdown.
- 2
November cash volume against the 11,500–13,500 base-case range.
- 3
December Fed decision and CBUAE response.
- 4
Restoration of a readable PMDPI series (September and October values).
- 5
Prime rental index monthly pace.
- 6
Resale share — whether it crosses 40%.
- 7
Mortgage share — whether it holds above 27%.
- 8
Handover completions versus the ~24,000 scheduled.
- 9
Established villa districts — whether October's weakness continues.
- 10
Outlier and land share of cash value — to keep headline value honest.
Methodology Notes
From DLD area-list exports. Headline totals use the de-duplicated basis — by-project files, equivalently by-community "parent rows only". The by-community exports list each transaction twice (community subtotal plus nested project rows marked "▪/•"); full-column sums are exactly 2× the true total.
Sale by project 11,968 / AED 34.98B; by-community parent rows 11,975 / AED 35.01B; by-community full column ÷ 2 = AED 35.01B. Mortgage by project 4,633 / AED 13.26B vs by-community parent rows 4,644 / AED 13.33B (small classification difference; by-project used). Gift 1,033 / AED 5.80B on both bases.
A few project rows appear twice in the by-project exports, the second time with blank count and total fields but repeated land/building/unit values. They do not affect headline totals (which use the count and total columns) and are excluded from asset-class splits (B1.3).
The October Gift exports carry a "Mortgage / الرهن" procedure label in the header — a DLD export mislabel previously seen in May. The figures are distinct from the Mortgage files and are treated as Gift.
Emirates 24/7 (via Offplan Insider) reports 11,610 October sales worth AED 34.12B; Haus51 reports 11,898 / AED 34.7B; this report 11,968 / AED 34.98B (within 0.6–3%; scope differences). Springfield Properties' secondary-market count (3,851 / AED 11.74B) matches Property Monitor's resale count (3,859 / AED 11.75B) within 0.2%.
"Outliers" are project lines whose average value per registration exceeds AED 50M (42 registrations, AED 3.74B). They are shown, not removed; ex-outlier figures are provided alongside.
Residential and commercial Sales Analysis now classify by Sales Recurrence (Initial Sale / Resale) and Rental Analysis by Rental Recurrence (New Contracts / Renewals), with built-in comparison to September. The Title Deed / Oqood series ends with the September edition; the resale-share series starts here. Implied September values are back-calculated from the tool's own MoM percentages and are labelled "implied".
The new rental tool includes renewals and implies ~59,800 Implied September contracts versus the 50,502 published from the previous export. Volumes are not compared across the two bases.
The October export includes the House Price Timeline as a chart without readable values; no September or October PMDPI value is quoted. Price assessment uses the triangulated gauges in B2.1.
Property Monitor community index (96 sales communities; 101 rental communities; 96 yield readings), trailing 12/6/3/1-month changes. Communities with very small samples or implausible rent levels are flagged. Yield columns are read as current yield plus historical readings.
Property Monitor residential developer tables (apartment, townhouse, villa × all/initial/resale) summed per developer. September comparisons use our September edition and are indicative.
Used qualitatively only; the exported time series are single-day chart readings.
October has 31 days versus September's 30 (daily-pace adjustment −3.2%).
Scenario projections combine observed trends, seasonality, published research and Elite Merit judgement. Probabilities are subjective and convey relative confidence. Every projection is re-tested the following month (C2).
Figures labelled with a source name are from that source. Statements marked "inference" or "estimate" are Elite Merit's analysis. External sources were checked up to 5 November 2026.
Final Conclusion
October showed what the Dubai market looks like under pressure from three directions at once — higher interest rates, a tense region and a record wave of new homes. It did not break. More deals were registered than in September, more buyers borrowed than in any month we have tracked, and prices barely moved.
But it is a different market from the one of 2024–2025. It rewards finished homes over promises, scarcity over volume, and realistic pricing over ambition. Tenants have more choice; landlords in prime areas must compete; buyers who do their homework have time and negotiating power; sellers who price to what actually sells are still transacting.
The next two months hinge on factors outside the property market itself — chiefly the regional talks and the US rate path. Our base case is a steady, selective year-end season. We will measure ourselves against it in November.
Important Disclaimer
General information only. This report is prepared by Elite Merit Real Estate for general information. It does not constitute investment, financial, legal, tax or mortgage advice, nor an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or lease any property. Readers should obtain independent professional advice appropriate to their circumstances before making any decision.
Data scope and accuracy. Figures are compiled from Dubai Land Department exports, Property Monitor reports and third-party publications believed to be reliable. Elite Merit Real Estate does not guarantee their accuracy or completeness. Source data may be revised; DLD export labels and Property Monitor formats can change between months, and some figures are derived (labelled "implied", "estimate" or "inference"). Averages can be distorted by a small number of large transactions; community-level figures with small samples can move sharply for reasons unrelated to market direction.
Forward-looking statements. Projections, scenarios and probabilities in this report are estimates based on current information and stated assumptions. They are inherently uncertain, and actual outcomes may differ materially. Past performance and historical patterns, including seasonality, are not reliable indicators of future results.
Geopolitical and macroeconomic risk. The regional situation is fluid. Developments after 5 November 2026 — including in diplomacy, military activity, shipping, oil prices or interest rates — may materially change the conclusions of this report.
Property-specific outcomes. Individual property values, rents and yields depend on location, building, unit, condition, view, service charges and timing, and may differ significantly from the market and community averages shown.